Game Recap: COL 0, VAN 3, February 4, 2025

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Game Recap

COL0

FinalTue, Feb 4, 2025Every game that night

VAN3

VAN beat COL 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.83 expected goals to 2.41. J. DeBrusk led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. DeBrusk had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. T. Demko stopped 25 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	0	0	0
VAN	0	1	2	3

2nd 4:26VANJ. DeBrusk0.28 xG
3rd 8:20VANB. BoeserPP0.07 xG
3rd 19:51VAND. O'ConnorEN0.33 xG

Team Stats

COLVAN

25Shots on goal31

2.41Expected goals3.83

57Shot attempts60

235v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play1/6

23Hits25

14Blocked shots12

31Penalty minutes13

10Giveaways8

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.41 xGVAN 3.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL24 on goal, 0 scored

VAN31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	5	1	0	-1	0	21:45	3:12
M. Necas	C	3	0	0	-1	0	21:10	2:35
A. Lehkonen	LW	2	0	1	-1	0	20:54	2:32
L. O'Connor	RW	2	3	1	0	0	14:55	0:00
J. Drouin	LW	1	0	0	-2	0	14:29	2:31
P. Kelly	C	0	4	0	0	0	14:18	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	-1	0	13:42	1:29
R. Colton	C	1	4	1	0	2	13:09	1:28
J. Drury	C	2	1	0	0	0	11:17	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	2	0	0	0	9:57	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	1	1	0	-1	0	9:21	1:25
M. Wood	LW	0	1	1	0	23	8:39	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	2	-2	0	33:00	1:49
C. Makar	D	4	1	2	-1	2	30:36	2:11
S. Girard	D	2	0	1	-1	0	19:15	0:48
S. Malinski	D	1	1	4	0	0	13:32	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	2	1	0	2	10:50	0:00
J. Manson	D	1	2	0	0	2	10:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	30	28	2	.933	57:40	Loss
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. DeBrusk	LW	1	1	2	5	3	1	+1	0	19:30	6:34
F. Chytil	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:45	6:42
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	20:38	7:33
D. O'Connor	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	2	14:02	0:00
E. Pettersson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:43	7:24
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	16:11	1:45
T. Blueger	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	14:50	0:02
D. Joshua	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:20	1:52
C. Garland	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	13:45	3:39
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	13:22	0:56
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:51	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:25	0:02
F. Hronek	D	0	2	2	3	1	3	+1	0	24:24	7:15
T. Myers	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	2	20:47	1:36
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	23:03	0:46
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	15:42	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	13:57	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:45	0:34

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	25	25	0	1.000	60:00	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDevon Toews COL Plays near home (born in Abbotsford)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 2.9, VAN 2.7	COL 0, VAN 3
Total goals	5.6	3
Shots on goal	COL 26.7, VAN 24.8	COL 25, VAN 31
Win chance	COL 53%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	5	1.40	0	37%	0
COL M. Necas	2.7	3	0.92	0	27%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	4	0.94	0	26%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.4	3	0.56	1	23%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.4	0	0.68	0	25%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	4	0.77	1	30%	1
VAN E. Pettersson	2.1	1	0.84	0	29%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.1	5	0.61	2	28%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	2	0.72	0	29%	0
COL D. Toews	1.9	0	0.53	0	13%	0
COL M. Wood	1.7	0	0.26	0	12%	0
VAN P. Suter	1.6	1	0.45	0	21%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	1.6	4	0.43	0	19%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.6	3	0.35	1	15%	1
COL R. Colton	1.6	1	0.41	0	19%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.5	1	0.73	0	17%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	2	0.30	0	10%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	1	0.32	0	9%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.4	3	0.48	2	7%	0
COL S. Girard	1.3	2	0.34	0	7%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	2	0.30	0	12%	0
VAN N. Hoglander	1.2	1	0.30	0	15%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	0	0.32	1	4%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.1	0	0.51	0	14%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.1	0	0.11	0	3%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.1	1	0.15	0	5%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.1	2	0.36	0	5%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	0	0.21	0	10%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.24	0	11%	0
VAN T. Blueger	1.0	1	0.30	0	9%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	0.9	0	0.16	0	10%	0
VAN C. Soucy	0.9	0	0.19	0	6%	0
VAN D. Joshua	0.9	2	0.38	0	18%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.7	0	0.17	0	4%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.7	1	0.27	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.