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Game Recap
COL0
WPG1
WPG beat COL 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 2.31 expected goals to 3.73. C. Wagner had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. C. Hellebuyck stopped 35 of 35.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WPG | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 1:06WPGG. Vilardi0.16 xG
Team Stats
COLWPG
35Shots on goal28
3.73Expected goals2.31
72Shot attempts54
335v5 shots on goal24
0/1Power play0/2
18Hits10
15Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes2
14Giveaways12
9Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 3.73 xGWPG 2.31 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25:11 | 1:10 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:29 | 1:10 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:55 | 1:10 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:59 | 1:10 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Tynan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 1:10 |
| N. Prishchepov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:16 | 1:10 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 21:04 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 57:09 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:24 | 2:26 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:57 | 2:29 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:37 | 3:23 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:45 | 1:29 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 0:03 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:03 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 2:29 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:31 | 1:29 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:37 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:03 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 1:24 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25:18 | 2:24 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:57 | 0:03 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:54 | 1:35 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 20:29 | 0:03 |
| L. Stanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 35 | 35 | 0 | 1.000 | 59:45 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.2, WPG 3.4 | COL 0, WPG 1 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | COL 31.4, WPG 29.8 | COL 35, WPG 28 |
| Win chance | WPG 53% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.4 | 4 | 1.39 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 3.2 | 3 | 1.14 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| WPG K. Connor | 3.1 | 3 | 1.01 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.7 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 5 | 0.84 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.5 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.2 | 4 | 0.81 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.1 | 0 | 1.00 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 2.1 | 2 | 0.75 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.1 | 2 | 0.89 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.0 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 1.8 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.4 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.3 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.1 | 3 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 1.1 | 4 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL N. Kovalenko | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| WPG L. Stanley | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL T. Tynan | 0.9 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.