Game Recap: COL 0, WPG 3, January 11, 2025

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Game Recap

COL0

FinalSat, Jan 11, 2025Every game that night

WPG3

WPG beat COL 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.95 expected goals to 1.76. N. Ehlers led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Morrissey had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. C. Hellebuyck stopped 22 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	0	0	0
WPG	1	1	1	3

1st 1:08WPGN. Ehlers0.10 xG
2nd 15:53WPGM. Scheifele0.13 xG
3rd 19:03WPGN. EhlersEN0.83 xG

Team Stats

COLWPG

22Shots on goal29

1.76Expected goals2.95

60Shot attempts49

185v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play0/0

21Hits23

9Blocked shots18

0Penalty minutes4

7Giveaways9

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 1.76 xGWPG 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL22 on goal, 0 scored

WPG28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	3	2	1	-1	24:33	3:15
N. MacKinnon	C	3	0	1	-1	24:17	2:41
J. Drouin	LW	2	1	0	-1	22:58	3:04
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	-2	19:08	0:45
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	1	0	-1	17:50	3:07
R. Colton	C	2	1	0	-1	15:26	0:56
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	3	1	-1	14:31	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	2	0	0	-1	13:50	0:00
P. Kelly	C	1	2	0	0	11:32	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	-1	9:29	0:54
J. Innala	LW	0	1	0	0	6:46	0:00
T. Felhaber	LW	0	1	0	0	4:25	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	1	-2	27:22	2:45
D. Toews	D	2	0	1	-1	25:44	1:18
J. Manson	D	3	2	0	-1	19:22	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	-1	18:15	1:15
C. de Haan	D	1	4	2	-1	15:20	0:00
K. Middleton	D	2	2	1	0	11:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	28	26	2	.929	57:56	Loss
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Ehlers	LW	2	0	2	3	3	2	+2	0	17:02	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	19:16	0:00
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	2	19:10	0:00
A. Lowry	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	0	18:31	0:00
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:30	0:00
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	15:42	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:01	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	12:42	0:00
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	12:14	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:08	0:00
D. Toninato	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:17	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:48	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	1	1	3	1	3	+2	0	24:47	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	0	23:59	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	23:57	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	22:44	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:43	0:00
D. Coghlan	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	2	12:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	22	22	0	1.000	60:00	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.2, WPG 3.0	COL 0, WPG 3
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	COL 30.5, WPG 26.9	COL 22, WPG 29
Win chance	COL 54%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	3	1.35	0	37%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.1	4	1.00	1	36%	0
COL C. Makar	3.0	0	1.03	0	21%	0
COL M. Rantanen	2.9	3	1.14	0	38%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	2.4	3	0.77	2	25%	2
COL A. Lehkonen	2.3	1	0.68	0	30%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	3	0.95	1	34%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.0	0	0.76	0	31%	0
COL R. Colton	2.0	2	0.46	0	22%	0
COL D. Toews	2.0	2	0.58	0	11%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.8	2	0.44	0	21%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.8	2	0.53	0	18%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.7	2	0.72	0	19%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.7	5	0.68	1	11%	0
WPG D. Coghlan	1.7	1	0.18	0	3%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	3	0.32	0	7%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	1	0.47	0	7%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.4	1	0.47	1	18%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	1	0.39	1	16%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.4	0	0.55	0	16%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	0	0.17	0	4%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	2	0.31	0	13%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.2	0	0.24	0	12%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.0	0	0.19	0	9%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.0	3	0.22	1	4%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.0	0	0.23	0	4%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	1	0.29	0	4%	0
COL C. Haan	0.9	1	0.15	0	3%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.9	0	0.27	0	11%	0
COL K. Middleton	0.8	2	0.05	0	2%	0
WPG D. Toninato	0.8	1	0.25	0	10%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.7	1	0.13	0	5%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.7	0	0.12	0	5%	0
COL J. Innala	0.5	0	0.10	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.