Game Recap: COL 1, WPG 3, March 14, 2026

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Game Recap

COL1

FinalSat, Mar 14, 2026Every game that night

WPG3

WPG beat COL 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.64 expected goals to 3.28. COL outshot WPG 29 to 19. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Nichushkin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Hellebuyck stopped 28 of 29.

Team Stats

COLWPG

29Shots on goal19

3.28Expected goals2.64

79Shot attempts36

225v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play0/1

17Hits20

5Blocked shots24

2Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways16

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.28 xGWPG 2.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL29 on goal, 1 scored

WPG18 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	26:48	2:57
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	25:26	2:54
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	24:20	2:55
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	7	2	1	0	0	23:03	1:19
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	22:35	2:41
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:39	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:22	1:03
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	13:20	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:13	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	5:26	1:06
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	3:48	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	25:21	2:39
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:42	1:21
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	16:15	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:54	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:18	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:06	1:05
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	18	16	2	.889	56:41	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	2	2	1	1	2	+1	2	19:53	0:55
K. Connor	LW	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	0	18:49	0:51
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:12	0:54
A. Iafallo	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+3	0	17:56	0:05
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	20:14	0:07
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	18:52	0:52
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	-1	0	13:19	0:05
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:53	0:56
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:01	1:03
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	9:27	1:00
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:35	0:59
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	7:25	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	25:02	1:04
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+2	0	24:36	0:11
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	20:53	0:45
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	20:33	0:13
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	15:11	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	12:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	29	28	1	.966	59:41	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon19:10M. Necas20:32N. Kadri17:47

Line 2B. Nelson16:16N. Roy14:19V. Nichushkin17:32

Line 3J. Drury14:34J. Kiviranta11:22P. Kelly12:13

Line 4G. Brindley4:01Z. Bardakov3:48

Pair 1D. Toews18:18C. Makar18:15

Pair 2S. Malinski15:49B. Kulak15:29

Pair 3B. Burns12:16J. Manson13:26

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele17:42K. Connor16:12A. Iafallo15:13

Line 2A. Lowry15:56C. Perfetti15:37G. Vilardi16:19

Line 3J. Toews10:58G. Nyquist11:26I. Rosen8:27

Line 4M. Barron9:58C. Koepke6:17B. Lambert6:36

Pair 1D. DeMelo19:23J. Morrissey20:57

Pair 2D. Samberg16:57E. Salomonsson17:32

Pair 3H. Fleury13:52J. Bryson12:28

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.3, WPG 2.8	COL 1, WPG 3
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	COL 30.5, WPG 26.0	COL 29, WPG 19
Win chance	COL 58%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	2	1.37	1	37%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.4	2	1.08	2	38%	1
COL N. Kadri	2.8	3	0.76	0	26%	0
COL M. Necas	2.7	4	1.11	1	30%	1
COL C. Makar	2.6	3	1.01	1	24%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.5	3	0.88	0	33%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.3	1	1.07	2	36%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.2	3	0.59	1	21%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.0	7	0.65	0	26%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.9	0	0.35	0	6%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.9	0	0.68	0	13%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.8	0	0.71	0	29%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	1	0.49	0	10%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	2	0.36	0	9%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.4	2	0.27	0	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	1	0.34	0	7%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	3	0.34	1	15%	1
WPG D. Samberg	1.2	2	0.25	0	4%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	0	0.34	0	15%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.2	0	0.18	0	5%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	0	0.32	0	13%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.2	0	0.33	0	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.1	0	0.31	0	11%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.1	1	0.21	0	4%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.1	1	0.21	0	10%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	1	0.31	0	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
COL N. Roy	1.0	1	0.34	0	13%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
WPG I. Rosen	1.0	3	0.25	0	11%	0
COL N. Blankenburg	1.0	0	0.24	0	6%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.8	0	0.13	0	2%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.7	0	0.23	0	10%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.6	1	0.17	0	4%	0
WPG J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.