Game Recap: COL 3, WPG 2, March 26, 2026

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Game Recap

COL3

FinalThu, Mar 26, 2026Every game that night

WPG2

COL beat WPG 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.23 expected goals to 2.22. COL outshot WPG 35 to 24. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Drury had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. M. Blackwood stopped 22 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	0	2	3
WPG	1	0	1	2

1st 9:55WPGM. Scheifele0.13 xG
1st 17:40COLJ. Drury0.49 xG
3rd 0:13COLN. MacKinnonPP0.06 xG
3rd 3:55COLN. MacKinnon0.09 xG
3rd 9:39WPGM. Scheifele0.05 xG

Team Stats

COLWPG

35Shots on goal24

4.23Expected goals2.22

72Shot attempts47

295v5 shots on goal19

1/4Power play0/4

14Hits25

7Blocked shots22

15Penalty minutes13

14Giveaways14

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.23 xGWPG 2.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL35 on goal, 3 scored

WPG24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	2	0	2	7	0	0	-1	0	24:55	6:05
M. Necas	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	19:20	6:04
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:11	5:45
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:30	0:03
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	5	4	0	+1	0	13:06	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	12:06	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	11:49	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	19:15	6:03
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:32	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	2	12:02	0:02
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	10:43	0:01
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	8:23	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	18:56	0:21
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	28:52	6:05
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:36	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	2	17:29	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	17:10	0:01
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	7	14:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	24	22	2	.917	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	2	0	2	4	1	0	+1	0	22:27	5:36
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	25:06	5:35
G. Vilardi	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	21:05	5:32
C. Perfetti	C	0	1	1	1	4	1	+1	0	18:31	5:37
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	16:37	0:01
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:04	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	5	11:27	0:00
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	11:11	2:25
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:10	2:26
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	9:49	0:10
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:49	2:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8:10	2:14
J. Morrissey	D	0	1	1	3	1	3	0	0	24:25	5:37
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	0	23:51	0:15
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	20:38	2:18
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	17:56	0:14
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	15:55	0:00
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	3	5	0	0	10:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	35	32	3	.914	59:53	Loss
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1G. Landeskog14:27N. MacKinnon17:25M. Necas12:20

Line 2N. Kadri9:52L. O'Connor10:43R. Colton10:36

Line 3J. Drury9:15P. Kelly8:05J. Kiviranta6:59

Line 4V. Nichushkin10:16B. Nelson10:36A. Lehkonen10:54

Pair 1D. Toews13:33S. Malinski16:17

Pair 2B. Kulak15:14C. Makar17:12

Pair 3B. Burns13:35J. Manson11:36

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele15:39K. Connor14:48A. Iafallo13:04

Line 2G. Vilardi15:33C. Perfetti12:05A. Lowry12:07

Line 3M. Barron9:03B. Lambert8:44I. Rosen7:49

Line 4J. Toews8:33G. Nyquist5:49C. Koepke7:38

Pair 1J. Morrissey17:36N. Pionk17:19

Pair 2D. Samberg18:02E. Salomonsson14:38

Pair 3D. DeMelo11:46H. Fleury8:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.2, WPG 2.6	COL 3, WPG 2
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	COL 30.5, WPG 25.2	COL 35, WPG 24
Win chance	COL 58%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	7	1.41	2	38%	2
WPG K. Connor	3.2	2	1.03	1	37%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.6	2	0.73	1	25%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	0	0.97	0	24%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	0	1.06	1	30%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.4	2	0.81	0	31%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.3	1	0.79	1	27%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.2	1	0.58	1	21%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	4	1.01	2	35%	2
COL V. Nichushkin	2.0	5	0.64	0	26%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.9	1	0.36	1	7%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.8	3	0.67	1	12%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.7	0	0.67	1	28%	0
COL R. Colton	1.7	2	0.36	0	15%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	3	0.33	0	9%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	0	0.37	0	7%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.6	0	0.51	1	21%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	1	0.45	0	9%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.5	0	0.30	0	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	1	0.33	0	7%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	0	0.34	0	16%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	2	0.37	0	16%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.2	3	0.22	0	11%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.2	2	0.25	0	4%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	0	0.31	1	13%	0
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.2	1	0.17	0	4%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.2	1	0.33	0	13%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.1	3	0.21	0	4%	0
COL J. Drury	1.1	5	0.29	1	10%	1
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	1	0.32	0	12%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	2	0.33	0	12%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
WPG I. Rosen	0.9	1	0.23	0	11%	0
WPG B. Lambert	0.9	1	0.33	0	11%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	1	0.22	0	3%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.6	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.