Game Recap: COL 2, WPG 3, October 7, 2026

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Game Recap

COL2

FinalWed, Oct 7, 2026Every game that night

WPG3

WPG beat COL 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.96 expected goals to 2.79. COL outshot WPG 34 to 19. K. Connor led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Skinner stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	1	1	2
WPG	0	2	1	3

2nd 2:51COLJ. Schwartz0.12 xG
2nd 4:01WPGK. Connor0.07 xG
2nd 18:16WPGC. Perfetti0.20 xG
3rd 12:35COLF. Svechkov0.28 xG
3rd 19:00WPGK. Connor0.16 xG

Team Stats

COLWPG

34Shots on goal19

2.79Expected goals1.96

67Shot attempts50

285v5 shots on goal19

0/1Power play0/2

19Hits20

12Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways16

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.79 xGWPG 1.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL33 on goal, 2 scored

WPG19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Schwartz	LW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	13:17	0:27
F. Svechkov	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	2	12:55	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	20:33	1:33
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	20:11	1:33
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	18:06	1:33
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	17:21	0:27
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	16:50	0:27
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	-2	0	15:16	0:27
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:56	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	12:10	0:00
T. Hughes	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+2	0	11:56	1:33
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	8:22	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	17:28	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	17:09	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	0	25:16	1:33
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	21:28	0:27
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:37	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	19	16	3	.842	59:13	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	2	2	1	1	0	+2	0	22:18	2:32
K. Connor	LW	2	0	2	4	0	0	+2	0	19:55	2:33
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	19:02	2:33
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	17:25	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:24	1:21
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:49	0:00
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:21	2:33
V. Björck	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:40	1:26
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:46	0:00
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:52	1:29
I. Rosen	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	10:15	1:24
B. Lambert	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:36	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	2	2	2	5	1	+1	2	25:25	0:48
N. Pionk	D	0	1	1	1	3	2	+1	0	23:10	2:02
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	23:36	0:02
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:38	0:00
J. St. Ivany	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:16	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:32	1:17

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	34	32	2	.941	60:00	Win
C. Stevenson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1B. Nelson15:06G. Landeskog14:02N. Kadri15:36

Line 2A. Lehkonen14:06N. MacKinnon17:42M. Necas18:13

Line 3J. Schwartz12:50T. Hughes10:23F. Svechkov12:13

Line 4P. Kelly10:57N. Roy10:16Z. L'Heureux8:22

Pair 1C. Makar21:25D. Toews18:27

Pair 2B. Kulak15:47S. Malinski18:30

Pair 3B. Burns16:05J. Manson15:45

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele19:13K. Connor16:57C. Perfetti16:08

Line 2A. Lowry13:48M. Barron15:52A. Iafallo13:10

Line 3G. Vilardi11:48V. Björck11:22I. Rosen8:51

Line 4C. Koepke11:53B. Lambert9:36V. Namestnikov10:23

Pair 1D. DeMelo18:42D. Samberg23:50

Pair 2M. Ferraro22:22J. Ivany14:16

Pair 3J. Morrissey7:20N. Pionk20:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
WPG K. Connor	3.5	+118	-140	4	Over
COL N. MacKinnon	3.5	-120	+105	1	Under
COL C. Makar	2.5	+105	-130	4	Over
WPG C. Perfetti	2.5	+125	-155	2	Under
COL M. Necas	2.5	-114	+100	3	Over
COL N. Kadri	2.5	+115	-130	4	Over
COL A. Lehkonen	1.5	-130	+115	0	Under
COL B. Burns	1.5	-115	-110	2	Over
COL B. Nelson	1.5	-155	+130	0	Under
COL D. Toews	1.5	+110	-130	2	Over
COL G. Landeskog	1.5	-135	+120	3	Over
WPG G. Vilardi	1.5	-115	+110	2	Over
WPG J. Morrissey	1.5	-164	+130	1	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	1.5	-160	+130	1	Under
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	-130	+100	1	Under
COL S. Malinski	1.5	-130	+100	1	Under

4 of 34 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+525	-750	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+260	-300	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
COL B. Burns	0.5	+1000	-1400	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+1800	-2800	0	Under
WPG B. Lambert	0.5	+850	-2500	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+235	-285	0	Under
WPG C. Koepke	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+333	-550	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+290	-300	1	Over
WPG D. DeMelo	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
WPG D. Samberg	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
COL F. Svechkov	0.5	+800	-1000	1	Over
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+290	-390	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
WPG I. Rosen	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+400	-750	1	Over
WPG J. Ivany	0.5	+1800	-10000	0	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+165	-200	2	Over
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+750	-2000	0	Under
WPG M. Ferraro	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+170	-200	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+225	-290	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+245	-310	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
COL N. Roy	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
COL P. Kelly	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
WPG V. Namestnikov	0.5	+625	-1200	0	Under
COL Z. L'Heureux	0.5	+900	–	0	Under

3 of 20 overs hit (15%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+390	-575	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+220	-210	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+220	-260	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-135	+125	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+155	-200	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+210	-280	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+310	-390	0	Under
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	+130	-135	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+220	-310	1	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+115	-135	0	Under
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	-110	+100	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+100	-120	2	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+145	-190	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	-185	+140	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+215	-350	1	Over
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+295	-375	0	Under

5 of 20 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
COL M. Necas	1.5	+160	-200	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	1.5	+105	-132	0	Under
WPG A. Iafallo	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	-105	-105	0	Under
WPG A. Lowry	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-220	+180	0	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	-110	-105	1	Over
COL D. Toews	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+105	-120	0	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	-104	-115	0	Under
COL J. Manson	0.5	+255	-320	0	Under
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+130	-175	2	Over
WPG K. Connor	0.5	-200	+160	2	Over
WPG M. Barron	0.5	+245	-350	0	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	-180	+145	2	Over
COL N. Kadri	0.5	-125	+110	0	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+170	-230	1	Over
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+215	-260	0	Under

0 of 14 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+340	-750	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+200	-215	Under
WPG C. Perfetti	0.5	+250	-350	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+400	-550	Under
WPG G. Vilardi	0.5	+235	-325	Under
WPG J. Morrissey	0.5	+275	-290	Under
WPG K. Connor	0.5	+180	-225	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+210	-240	Under
WPG M. Scheifele	0.5	+180	-250	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+250	-375	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+180	-180	Under
WPG N. Pionk	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
WPG V. Namestnikov	0.5	+500	-1600	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
WPG S. Skinner	28.5	-105	-130	32	Over
COL M. Blackwood	23.5	-120	-105	16	Under

2 of 7 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
COL B. Kulak	1.5	+125	-175	1	Under
COL C. Makar	1.5	+140	–	3	Over
WPG D. DeMelo	1.5	+115	–	1	Under
WPG D. Samberg	1.5	-185	+130	1	Under
WPG J. Morrissey	1.5	-105	-135	1	Under
WPG N. Pionk	1.5	-135	–	2	Over
COL S. Malinski	0.5	-245	+170	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.6, WPG 2.8	COL 2, WPG 3
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	COL 31.2, WPG 26.1	COL 34, WPG 19
Win chance	COL 61%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.5	1	1.30	0	37%	0
WPG K. Connor	3.3	4	0.98	2	35%	2
COL N. Kadri	2.6	4	0.71	0	25%	0
COL M. Necas	2.5	3	1.06	0	29%	0
COL C. Makar	2.5	4	0.96	0	23%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.4	3	0.81	0	30%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.2	2	0.56	1	20%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.0	1	0.96	2	32%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.9	0	0.69	0	28%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.9	0	0.65	0	26%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	1	0.38	0	8%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	1.7	1	0.62	0	11%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	2	0.36	1	9%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.6	1	0.36	1	7%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	1.6	2	0.65	0	26%	0
COL J. Schwartz	1.6	2	0.48	2	19%	1
COL D. Toews	1.6	2	0.56	0	10%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.6	0	0.32	0	14%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	0	0.36	0	7%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	2	0.34	0	15%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.4	0	0.24	0	12%	0
COL Z. L'Heureux	1.3	3	0.27	0	12%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.36	0	14%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.2	2	0.35	0	15%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.1	2	0.22	2	3%	0
WPG B. Lambert	1.1	0	0.24	0	11%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.1	2	0.23	1	5%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	0	0.27	0	11%	0
COL F. Svechkov	1.1	2	0.31	2	11%	1
WPG I. Rosen	1.0	1	0.21	0	12%	0
COL N. Roy	1.0	3	0.36	0	13%	0
WPG M. Ferraro	1.0	0	0.23	0	5%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
WPG J. Ivany	0.7	0	0.18	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.