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Game Recap
DAL2
CGY3
CGY beat DAL 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.16 expected goals to 3.27. J. Robertson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). W. Johnston had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. D. Cooley stopped 28 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 11:41CGYM. CoronatoPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 1:50CGYJ. FarabeePP0.16 xG
- 3rd 6:44DALJ. Robertson0.04 xG
- 3rd 16:53DALR. Hintz0.13 xG
Team Stats
DALCGY
30Shots on goal33
3.27Expected goals3.16
56Shot attempts63
195v5 shots on goal24
0/4Power play2/6
15Hits17
15Blocked shots15
28Penalty minutes25
12Giveaways19
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.27 xGCGY 3.16 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Robertson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:43 | 5:25 |
| R. Hintz | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:03 | 4:20 |
| T. Seguin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:35 | 3:34 |
| W. Johnston | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:16 | 4:56 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 0:41 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 13:32 | 3:30 |
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 1:40 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:36 | 1:21 |
| J. Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Lindell | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 25:45 | 0:53 |
| K. Capobianco | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:03 | 1:16 |
| M. Heiskanen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 32:47 | 5:22 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:13 | 0:00 |
| V. Kolyachonok | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. DeSmith | 33 | 31 | 2 | .939 | 64:35 | OT loss |
| J. Oettinger | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 | 5:13 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 2:09 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:18 | 3:51 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 17 | 13:25 | 2:24 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:24 | 3:28 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 | 4:42 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:50 | 5:21 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:27 | 1:14 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 3:34 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 3:23 |
| J. Beecher | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:41 | 0:09 |
| S. Morton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:30 | 0:08 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 27:18 | 5:44 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 23:30 | 3:17 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:59 | 0:28 |
| Y. Kuznetsov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DAL
Line 1R. Hintz11:31J. Robertson15:11T. Seguin12:25
Line 2M. Rantanen9:37W. Johnston13:03J. Benn10:22
Line 3J. Hryckowian9:08O. Bäck8:47M. Bourque8:59
Line 4C. Blackwell8:29R. Faksa7:21S. Steel11:25
Pair 1E. Lindell16:04M. Heiskanen16:41
Pair 2A. Petrovic15:06L. Bichsel15:15
Pair 3K. Capobianco11:39V. Kolyachonok9:37
CGY
Line 1M. Backlund12:12C. Zary12:40B. Coleman12:55
Line 2N. Kadri13:05Y. Sharangovich12:51J. Farabee12:13
Line 3M. Frost11:13M. Coronato11:39J. Huberdeau8:52
Line 4J. Beecher6:40S. Morton5:26A. Klapka5:53
Pair 1M. Weegar15:51Y. Kuznetsov16:22
Pair 2K. Bahl15:11R. Andersson14:28
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 2.9, CGY 2.9 | DAL 2, CGY 3 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 25.3, CGY 31.0 | DAL 30, CGY 33 |
| Win chance | DAL 50% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 3.1 | 6 | 1.02 | 2 | 36% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.5 | 6 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.4 | 1 | 1.01 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.3 | 0 | 0.47 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.3 | 7 | 0.75 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 5 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 2.1 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| DAL M. Heiskanen | 2.1 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.1 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL T. Seguin | 1.9 | 1 | 0.61 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.9 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 1.7 | 6 | 0.52 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Kuznetsov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.4 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DAL E. Lindell | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.1 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 1.1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL J. Hryckowian | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL R. Faksa | 0.7 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY J. Beecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL K. Capobianco | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL V. Kolyachonok | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.