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Game Recap
DAL4
DET6
DET beat DAL 6-4, with the chances close: 3.74 expected goals to 3.93. DET outshot DAL 37 to 28. L. Raymond led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Kasper had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Talbot stopped 24 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| DET | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
- 1st 4:27DETA. Johansson0.09 xG
- 1st 7:15DALL. Bichsel0.45 xG
- 1st 13:52DETA. DeBrincat0.14 xG
- 2nd 9:00DALE. Dadonov0.08 xG
- 2nd 11:25DALC. BlackwellSH0.29 xG
- 3rd 1:15DETJ. Berggren0.05 xG
- 3rd 4:19DETM. SeiderPP0.04 xG
- 3rd 9:49DETL. Raymond0.11 xG
- 3rd 12:56DALW. Johnston0.31 xG
- 3rd 18:04DETV. TarasenkoEN0.94 xG
Team Stats
DALDET
28Shots on goal37
3.93Expected goals3.74
55Shot attempts58
225v5 shots on goal32
0/3Power play1/3
17Hits20
11Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways17
4Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DAL 3.93 xGDET 3.74 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DAL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Benn | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:42 | 3:02 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 3:59 |
| W. Johnston | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 3:36 |
| R. Hintz | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 15:56 | 2:53 |
| E. Dadonov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:18 | 1:58 |
| S. Steel | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:55 | 0:03 |
| C. Blackwell | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:03 |
| M. Duchene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:25 | 2:53 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:01 | 3:50 |
| J. Robertson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:30 | 2:55 |
| M. Bourque | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 2:17 |
| O. Bäck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:03 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Smith | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:07 |
| L. Bichsel | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:11 |
| M. Dumba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:53 | 1:56 |
| I. Lyubushkin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:27 | 0:03 |
| A. Petrovic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:11 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Oettinger | 36 | 31 | 5 | .861 | 59:25 | Loss |
| C. DeSmith | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 1:56 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 2:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:51 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 1:56 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:58 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:53 | 2:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:03 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:36 | 1:52 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 1:52 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:11 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:11 |
| A. Watson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:11 |
| M. Seider | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:59 | 1:44 |
| A. Johansson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 21:56 | 2:08 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:11 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:13 | 0:11 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL 3.3, DET 3.2 | DAL 4, DET 6 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | DAL 26.2, DET 31.0 | DAL 28, DET 37 |
| Win chance | DAL 50% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.1 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 1 | 0.86 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.8 | 3 | 0.87 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| DAL J. Robertson | 2.5 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DAL M. Rantanen | 2.3 | 2 | 0.98 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.3 | 4 | 0.81 | 3 | 26% | 1 |
| DAL W. Johnston | 2.2 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.1 | 2 | 0.44 | 3 | 7% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 2.0 | 5 | 0.50 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DAL R. Hintz | 1.9 | 1 | 0.83 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| DAL M. Duchene | 1.8 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| DAL M. Granlund | 1.6 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DAL J. Benn | 1.6 | 3 | 0.61 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DAL E. Dadonov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 3 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DAL M. Bourque | 1.2 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL C. Blackwell | 1.1 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| DAL L. Bichsel | 1.1 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| DAL C. Ceci | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL S. Steel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| DAL M. Dumba | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DAL B. Smith | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DAL A. Petrovic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| DAL I. Lyubushkin | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DET A. Watson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DAL O. Bäck | 0.6 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.6 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.