Game Recap: DAL 8, EDM 3, November 25, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL8

FinalTue, Nov 25, 2025Every game that night

EDM3

DAL beat EDM 8-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.02 expected goals to 1.69. W. Johnston led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Oettinger stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	4	2	2	8
EDM	0	1	2	3

1st 3:48DALJ. Benn0.19 xG
1st 10:51DALR. HintzPP0.20 xG
1st 15:24DALN. Bastian0.13 xG
1st 18:46DALS. Steel0.53 xG
2nd 4:39EDMC. Clattenburg0.03 xG
2nd 14:01DALJ. RobertsonPP0.42 xG
2nd 15:36DALW. JohnstonPP0.42 xG
3rd 1:23EDME. Bouchard0.04 xG
3rd 8:21DALJ. Hryckowian0.34 xG
3rd 9:31EDMJ. Roslovic0.18 xG
3rd 15:39DALN. Bastian0.38 xG

Team Stats

DALEDM

30Shots on goal25

5.02Expected goals1.69

56Shot attempts50

225v5 shots on goal20

3/4Power play0/2

17Hits22

14Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes10

13Giveaways20

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 5.02 xGEDM 1.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL30 on goal, 8 scored

EDM24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	1	3	4	3	0	0	+1	0	17:59	3:34
J. Robertson	LW	1	2	3	4	0	0	-1	0	16:57	3:48
T. Seguin	C	0	2	2	0	2	0	-1	0	17:06	3:57
S. Steel	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	15:23	1:52
R. Faksa	C	0	2	2	1	2	1	+1	0	14:07	0:02
N. Bastian	RW	2	0	2	3	3	0	+1	2	13:17	0:00
J. Benn	LW	1	1	2	3	2	1	+1	0	12:22	1:53
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	16:25	3:57
M. Bourque	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	16:10	2:14
J. Hryckowian	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	13:11	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	1	1	2	3	1	+2	0	12:55	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:56	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	23:08	3:56
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	12:23	0:00
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+3	0	23:04	1:52
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	+1	0	22:12	0:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	19:44	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:37	2:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Oettinger	25	22	3	.880	59:43	Win
C. DeSmith	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	19:28	1:37
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	0	18:49	1:37
M. Savoie	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:37	0:44
M. Janmark	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:06	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	15:51	0:00
C. Clattenburg	C	1	0	1	1	7	1	+1	2	12:58	0:21
J. Roslovic	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	-1	0	11:09	0:23
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	17:16	1:37
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	15:35	0:23
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	4	13:59	1:37
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	8:29	0:21
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5:25	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	22:27	1:35
T. Emberson	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	16:35	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	-2	0	22:23	0:46
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	21:47	0:21
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:03	0:23
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	8	4	4	.500	19:46	Loss
C. Pickard	22	18	4	.818	40:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1O. Bäck12:37M. Bourque13:39J. Hryckowian13:03

Line 2C. Blackwell12:05N. Bastian13:03R. Faksa12:57

Line 3T. Seguin12:18J. Robertson12:18R. Hintz10:34

Line 4S. Steel12:06W. Johnston12:50J. Benn10:29

Pair 1A. Petrovic21:18L. Bichsel19:18

Pair 2E. Lindell17:14M. Heiskanen15:03

Pair 3K. Capobianco13:20V. Kolyachonok12:23

EDM

Line 1C. Clattenburg12:37D. Tomasek15:12M. Janmark14:13

Line 2Z. Hyman14:53L. Draisaitl14:46C. McDavid15:25

Line 3J. Roslovic10:46M. Savoie14:13A. Henrique10:22

Line 4A. Mangiapane7:35V. Podkolzin12:24

Pair 1D. Nurse18:35A. Regula19:08

Pair 2M. Ekholm15:35E. Bouchard17:11

Pair 3B. Kulak13:56T. Emberson14:19

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 3.0, EDM 3.2	DAL 8, EDM 3
Total goals	6.2	11
Shots on goal	DAL 24.7, EDM 30.9	DAL 30, EDM 25
Win chance	EDM 54%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.2	4	1.12	3	37%	1
EDM C. McDavid	3.0	1	1.54	1	37%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	3.0	2	0.86	1	16%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	2	1.36	1	44%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.7	1	0.76	0	35%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	3	0.80	4	32%	1
EDM J. Roslovic	2.2	3	0.68	1	24%	1
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	1	0.84	1	30%	1
EDM M. Ekholm	2.1	2	0.42	0	9%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.0	3	0.33	0	8%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.0	2	0.71	1	12%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.9	0	0.67	2	25%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.5	3	0.44	0	20%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	1	0.38	1	14%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.4	2	0.28	1	13%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.2	3	0.32	1	13%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.2	3	0.44	2	15%	1
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	0	0.19	0	4%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.1	0	0.25	0	13%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.1	1	0.35	0	16%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.1	2	0.36	2	11%	1
DAL E. Lindell	1.0	0	0.30	0	7%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	1.0	3	0.20	0	5%	0
EDM D. Tomasek	1.0	0	0.20	0	9%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	0.9	3	0.27	1	11%	1
DAL C. Blackwell	0.9	2	0.23	1	10%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	0	0.17	1	3%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.7	0	0.19	0	6%	0
EDM A. Regula	0.7	1	0.06	0	3%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.7	3	0.16	2	8%	2
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	1	0.24	2	8%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.6	2	0.20	1	8%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.24	0	8%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.6	0	0.14	0	4%	0
DAL V. Kolyachonok	0.5	0	0.14	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.