Game Recap: DAL 2, NYR 3 (OT), December 2, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL2

Final/OTTue, Dec 2, 2025Every game that night

NYR3

NYR beat DAL 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.04 expected goals to 1.82. NYR outshot DAL 41 to 26. A. Panarin led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). N. Laba had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. I. Shesterkin stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DAL	1	0	1	0	2
NYR	1	0	1	1	3

1st 6:51NYRC. Soucy0.70 xG
1st 9:04DALK. Capobianco0.04 xG
3rd 9:32DALM. Rantanen0.23 xG
3rd 17:47NYRW. Cuylle0.26 xG
OT 1:09NYRV. Gavrikov0.14 xG

Team Stats

DALNYR

26Shots on goal41

1.82Expected goals4.04

49Shot attempts69

205v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/5

17Hits27

14Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways11

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 1.82 xGNYR 4.04 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL23 on goal, 2 scored

NYR38 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Johnston	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:32	2:07
M. Rantanen	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	21:13	3:30
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	20:20	2:50
R. Hintz	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	17:59	2:04
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	4	16:25	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:14	1:56
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	13:19	1:53
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:13	0:00
C. Blackwell	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:48	0:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	11:46	0:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	10:54	0:30
T. Seguin	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1:12	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:05	1:13
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	28:50	2:46
E. Lindell	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	27:11	1:11
I. Lyubushkin	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	21:14	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	17:30	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	11:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	41	38	3	.927	60:14	OT loss
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	0	2	2	5	0	1	+2	0	22:35	7:51
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	22:54	6:32
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	2	6	1	-1	0	22:30	6:44
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	5	3	1	+1	0	17:54	6:34
N. Laba	C	0	1	1	5	3	0	+1	0	16:41	3:31
C. Sheary	LW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	11:19	3:15
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	22:29	6:37
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	16:29	2:13
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	16:18	3:24
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:47	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:19	1:06
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:49	0:01
V. Gavrikov	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	22:29	0:10
C. Soucy	D	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	4	15:59	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	-2	0	20:34	0:01
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:23	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	14:29	2:01
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	12:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	26	24	2	.923	60:54	Win
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen16:21W. Johnston14:13S. Steel13:19

Line 2R. Hintz12:43J. Robertson15:53J. Benn13:20

Line 3C. Blackwell8:37R. Faksa10:05O. Bäck9:44

Line 4M. Bourque11:11J. Hryckowian7:45

Pair 1E. Lindell17:19M. Heiskanen17:18

Pair 2I. Lyubushkin16:22V. Kolyachonok10:58

Pair 3A. Petrovic16:58K. Capobianco10:52

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad13:52A. Panarin14:08A. Lafrenière14:01

Line 2V. Trocheck12:20J. Miller12:09J. Brodzinski12:39

Line 3N. Laba11:59B. Berard11:41W. Cuylle9:28

Line 4C. Sheary7:24T. Raddysh8:13S. Carrick6:48

Pair 1V. Gavrikov19:24B. Schneider18:08

Pair 2C. Soucy15:04W. Borgen13:14

Pair 3S. Morrow12:28M. Robertson11:10

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.9, NYR 2.9	DAL 2, NYR 3
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	DAL 26.3, NYR 27.3	DAL 26, NYR 41
Win chance	DAL 50%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.1	1	1.01	0	34%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	5	1.15	2	33%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	2	0.81	1	26%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.4	2	0.75	1	30%	0
DAL M. Rantanen	2.3	4	0.93	1	30%	1
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	2	0.80	1	26%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.2	2	0.64	0	10%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	5	0.56	1	22%	1
DAL R. Hintz	2.1	2	0.75	0	27%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.0	4	0.95	0	29%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.8	1	0.65	0	24%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	2	0.55	0	21%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.6	1	0.25	0	13%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.5	1	0.34	0	14%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	1	0.35	1	7%	1
DAL J. Benn	1.4	0	0.48	0	16%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.4	3	0.32	0	13%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	1.3	1	0.22	0	5%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	1	0.32	1	12%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.2	1	0.31	0	7%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.2	2	0.22	0	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	2	0.23	0	6%	0
NYR C. Soucy	1.2	2	0.20	1	7%	1
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.1	0	0.32	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	2	0.21	0	5%	0
DAL S. Steel	1.0	2	0.32	0	10%	0
DAL C. Blackwell	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	5	0.27	1	14%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.9	3	0.13	0	4%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	1	0.19	0	8%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.8	2	0.19	1	5%	1
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	0	0.25	0	8%	0
DAL I. Lyubushkin	0.6	2	0.17	0	2%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	1	0.24	0	8%	0
DAL V. Kolyachonok	0.6	2	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.