Game Recap: DAL 3, SEA 2, November 26, 2025

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Game Recap

DAL3

FinalWed, Nov 26, 2025Every game that night

SEA2

DAL beat SEA 3-2, with the chances close: 2.73 expected goals to 2.44. T. Seguin led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Larsson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. C. DeSmith stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	1	1	1	3
SEA	1	0	1	2

1st 5:52DALR. Hintz0.12 xG
1st 9:06SEAB. Montour0.03 xG
2nd 6:13DALE. Lindell0.18 xG
3rd 0:18SEAV. Dunn0.04 xG
3rd 14:16DALV. Kolyachonok0.01 xG

Team Stats

DALSEA

21Shots on goal28

2.73Expected goals2.44

37Shot attempts52

185v5 shots on goal20

0/1Power play0/5

17Hits23

13Blocked shots8

10Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways17

7Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DAL 2.73 xGSEA 2.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DAL21 on goal, 3 scored

SEA28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DAL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Seguin	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+3	0	16:03	0:00
R. Hintz	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	2	18:13	2:00
J. Hryckowian	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	13:39	0:00
J. Benn	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	11:01	0:00
W. Johnston	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	19:22	2:00
J. Robertson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	0	18:17	2:00
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:36	2:00
O. Bäck	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:57	0:00
S. Steel	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:34	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:47	0:00
M. Bourque	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:55	0:00
N. Bastian	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:32	0:00
E. Lindell	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	-1	0	28:16	0:00
A. Petrovic	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	+1	6	17:57	0:00
V. Kolyachonok	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	12:03	0:00
K. Capobianco	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	11:54	0:00
M. Heiskanen	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	29:07	2:00
L. Bichsel	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	18:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. DeSmith	28	26	2	.929	59:52	Win
J. Oettinger	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+2	0	17:53	5:14
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	14:31	4:02
B. Catton	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:05	3:04
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:04	5:58
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	21:17	6:04
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:14	5:46
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	18:26	4:13
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:43	2:57
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	15:14	0:02
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:26	2:32
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	8:51	0:03
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:38	0:00
V. Dunn	D	1	0	1	2	0	3	-2	4	24:13	6:18
B. Montour	D	1	0	1	6	3	1	0	0	22:14	3:42
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	20:00	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	16:19	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:01	0:05
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	21	18	3	.857	58:29	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DAL

Line 1M. Rantanen13:40W. Johnston13:37J. Benn10:38

Line 2T. Seguin13:01R. Hintz11:23J. Robertson14:09

Line 3M. Bourque10:55J. Hryckowian11:18O. Bäck10:15

Line 4R. Faksa7:51N. Bastian6:32S. Steel9:34

Pair 1E. Lindell17:43M. Heiskanen18:18

Pair 2A. Petrovic15:04L. Bichsel14:13

Pair 3K. Capobianco11:54V. Kolyachonok11:40

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle13:33M. Beniers13:26M. Marchment14:10

Line 2C. Stephenson12:45E. Tolvanen12:13J. Schwartz8:23

Line 3S. Wright10:27B. Catton9:58J. McCann10:38

Line 4F. Gaudreau12:34R. Winterton7:38T. Kartye7:11

Pair 1A. Larsson17:26V. Dunn16:19

Pair 2B. Montour15:27R. Lindgren13:31

Pair 3R. Evans13:44J. Oleksiak12:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DAL 2.8, SEA 2.9	DAL 3, SEA 2
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	DAL 24.9, SEA 27.5	DAL 21, SEA 28
Win chance	SEA 52%	DAL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DAL J. Robertson	3.0	2	0.99	0	34%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.6	6	0.49	1	14%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.5	2	0.79	1	29%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	1	0.70	0	25%	0
DAL W. Johnston	2.3	4	0.73	0	30%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.3	2	0.60	0	25%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.2	2	0.59	1	13%	1
DAL M. Rantanen	2.2	2	0.90	0	30%	0
DAL M. Heiskanen	2.1	2	0.66	0	11%	0
SEA M. Marchment	2.1	0	0.66	0	24%	0
DAL R. Hintz	2.0	3	0.76	1	28%	1
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	2	0.64	0	24%	0
DAL T. Seguin	1.8	1	0.62	2	24%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	2	0.49	0	21%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	5	0.29	0	7%	0
DAL M. Bourque	1.3	1	0.32	0	13%	0
DAL J. Benn	1.3	1	0.42	1	15%	0
DAL A. Petrovic	1.3	2	0.19	1	5%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	1	0.49	1	19%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	0	0.68	0	20%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.2	0	0.35	0	16%	0
DAL E. Lindell	1.1	2	0.29	1	7%	1
DAL S. Steel	1.1	0	0.35	0	11%	0
DAL J. Hryckowian	1.0	0	0.27	1	12%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	1	0.27	0	13%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	0	0.16	0	9%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	1	0.24	0	4%	0
SEA B. Catton	0.9	1	0.28	1	10%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	1	0.29	0	5%	0
DAL L. Bichsel	0.8	0	0.18	0	6%	0
DAL N. Bastian	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
DAL R. Faksa	0.7	0	0.24	0	8%	0
DAL K. Capobianco	0.7	0	0.15	1	4%	0
DAL O. Bäck	0.6	0	0.22	0	8%	0
DAL V. Kolyachonok	0.6	1	0.15	1	3%	1

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.