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Game Recap
DET2
BOS3
BOS beat DET 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.39 expected goals to 3.92. M. Geekie led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Swayman stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 2nd 4:25BOSM. Geekie0.03 xG
- 3rd 6:38DETL. Raymond0.06 xG
- 3rd 13:39BOSM. GeekiePP0.10 xG
- 3rd 18:06DETM. Rasmussen0.15 xG
Team Stats
DETBOS
26Shots on goal20
3.92Expected goals2.39
63Shot attempts46
165v5 shots on goal15
0/5Power play1/2
24Hits28
9Blocked shots17
11Penalty minutes17
21Giveaways16
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.92 xGBOS 2.39 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:53 | 6:10 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:53 | 5:45 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:20 | 5:50 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:33 | 4:13 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 3:47 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:20 | 5:56 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 3:30 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| N. Danielson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 3:44 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 5 | 28:18 | 4:58 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:06 | 4:01 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 6 | 16:38 | 0:06 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Geekie | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:18 | 2:24 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:52 | 1:59 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:30 | 2:27 |
| P. Zacha | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:53 | 2:24 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:25 | 0:05 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:03 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Steeves | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:23 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Viel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 26:57 | 0:03 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 26:11 | 2:04 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 26:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:41 | 0:00 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:23 |
| M. Callahan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Swayman | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 65:00 | Win |
| J. Korpisalo | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1L. Raymond14:32E. Finnie13:15D. Larkin12:47
Line 2P. Kane12:51A. DeBrincat13:36A. Copp12:28
Line 3M. Kasper12:46E. Soderblom12:43N. Danielson8:51
Line 4J. Compher9:47M. Rasmussen7:19M. Appleton8:07
Pair 1S. Edvinsson20:16M. Seider18:57
Pair 2B. Chiarot16:32A. Sandin-Pellikka13:21
Pair 3T. Hamonic10:50A. Johansson12:52
BOS
Line 1C. Mittelstadt13:55M. Khusnutdinov14:24P. Zacha13:42
Line 2T. Jeannot12:58F. Minten12:36M. Kastelic12:57
Line 3M. Geekie10:34E. Lindholm10:02A. Steeves10:04
Line 4S. Kuraly10:19M. Eyssimont8:51J. Viel7:45
Pair 1A. Peeke19:43J. Aspirot16:37
Pair 2M. Lohrei13:46M. Callahan10:00
Pair 3H. Lindholm15:21N. Zadorov18:16
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.2, BOS 3.1 | DET 2, BOS 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 30.3, BOS 26.0 | DET 26, BOS 20 |
| Win chance | DET 52% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.4 | 4 | 0.88 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.2 | 1 | 0.99 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.5 | 3 | 0.93 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.2 | 3 | 0.84 | 2 | 33% | 2 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 2.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.7 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.7 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.6 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.5 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.4 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.2 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET N. Danielson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BOS J. Viel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS M. Callahan | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.7 | 3 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.