BUF beat DET 5-3, with the chances close: 2.73 expected goals to 2.20. BUF outshot DET 39 to 25. T. Thompson led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Samuelsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. U. Luukkonen stopped 22 of 25.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.20 xGBUF 2.73 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:14 | 3:14 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:41 | 3:14 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:40 | 3:14 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:12 | 3:14 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:45 | 0:46 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:59 | 0:46 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:19 | 0:46 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:06 | 0:46 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:46 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:35 | 2:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 22:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:07 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:18 | 1:53 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:36 | 5:11 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:36 | 5:04 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:52 | 4:45 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:43 | 4:32 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:25 | 2:18 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:09 | 2:39 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:52 | 2:53 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 1:29 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:54 | 0:00 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 23:33 | 5:32 |
| B. Byram | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:55 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:37 | 1:04 |
| M. Samuelsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:16 | 0:00 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:48 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 25 | 22 | 3 | .880 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Levi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.2, BUF 3.6 | DET 3, BUF 5 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | DET 27.6, BUF 33.1 | DET 25, BUF 39 |
| Win chance | BUF 57% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.5 | 6 | 1.01 | 3 | 40% | 2 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.1 | 5 | 0.99 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.9 | 0 | 0.70 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.8 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.7 | 5 | 0.95 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 4 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.6 | 1 | 0.73 | 3 | 18% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.4 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 2 | 0.82 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.58 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 0 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.5 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.2 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 3 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF M. Samuelsson | 1.0 | 4 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.9 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.