Game Recap: DET 5, BUF 2, March 27, 2026

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Game Recap

DET5

FinalFri, Mar 27, 2026Every game that night

BUF2

DET beat BUF 5-2, with the chances close: 3.42 expected goals to 3.54. BUF outshot DET 30 to 20. A. DeBrincat led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Quinn had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Gibson stopped 28 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	3	0	2	5
BUF	0	1	1	2

1st 4:02DETA. DeBrincatPP0.58 xG
1st 9:11DETL. RaymondPP0.10 xG
1st 16:06DETM. Kasper0.26 xG
2nd 5:35BUFT. Thompson0.20 xG
3rd 15:46DETJ. Bernard-Docker0.09 xG
3rd 16:25BUFR. Dahlin0.22 xG
3rd 18:17DETP. KaneEN0.58 xG

Team Stats

DETBUF

20Shots on goal30

3.42Expected goals3.54

34Shot attempts68

115v5 shots on goal23

2/6Power play0/3

11Hits27

14Blocked shots6

8Penalty minutes14

18Giveaways16

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.42 xGBUF 3.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET18 on goal, 5 scored

BUF30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	2	3	4	0	0	+1	0	18:56	5:50
P. Kane	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	18:01	5:46
D. Larkin	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	23:14	5:20
L. Raymond	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	20:14	6:02
M. Kasper	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	14:05	0:02
E. Finnie	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	13:02	2:45
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	9:17	0:46
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:18	2:52
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	+1	0	18:47	2:11
D. Perron	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:13	2:41
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	8:15	0:00
D. Shine	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4:41	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	2	2	1	1	3	+1	0	29:48	5:40
J. Bernard-Docker	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	2	9:46	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	24:06	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	20:11	3:12
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	17:55	0:23
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	10:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	30	28	2	.933	60:00	Win
M. Postava	0	0	0	–	0:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Thompson	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	4	21:16	4:59
P. Krebs	C	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	13:12	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	5:43	0:00
A. Tuch	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	+2	0	18:51	0:50
R. McLeod	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:26	0:55
J. Quinn	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	0	17:24	5:01
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	17:04	5:01
Z. Benson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	16:55	0:49
J. Norris	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	2	16:38	4:55
J. Doan	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:18	0:50
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:28	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:46	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	4	23:30	5:13
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	3	3	1	-1	0	21:17	0:42
C. Timmins	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	14:30	0:00
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	-1	0	21:51	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	20:58	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	4	12:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	19	15	4	.789	57:57	Loss
C. Ellis	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1J. Compher13:09D. Larkin12:48L. Raymond12:47

Line 2P. Kane11:59A. Copp11:59A. DeBrincat11:50

Line 3M. Kasper10:55E. Finnie10:09J. Riemsdyk8:31

Line 4D. Perron7:20M. Appleton7:28D. Shine4:41

Pair 1M. Seider16:53S. Edvinsson16:49

Pair 2B. Chiarot14:48J. Faulk14:32

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker9:46A. Johansson9:51

BUF

Line 1J. Doan13:47Z. Benson12:38J. Norris10:57

Line 2T. Thompson12:33P. Krebs10:55A. Tuch11:06

Line 3R. McLeod11:14J. Quinn10:56J. Zucker11:32

Line 4S. Carrick6:41B. Malenstyn5:36T. Pearson5:43

Pair 1O. Power16:33B. Byram16:16

Pair 2M. Samuelsson14:39R. Dahlin16:30

Pair 3L. Stanley9:48C. Timmins8:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJacob Bernard-Docker DET Faces BUF, his team until Apr 20251 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.0, BUF 3.3	DET 5, BUF 2
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	DET 28.0, BUF 28.1	DET 20, BUF 30
Win chance	BUF 55%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.6	4	0.96	3	36%	1
BUF T. Thompson	3.2	4	1.00	1	40%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.9	1	0.81	1	33%	0
DET P. Kane	2.8	2	0.82	2	26%	1
BUF R. Dahlin	2.4	2	0.85	1	18%	1
BUF A. Tuch	2.4	4	0.79	0	32%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.3	2	0.90	1	28%	1
DET M. Seider	2.2	1	0.60	2	10%	0
BUF J. Zucker	2.0	2	0.65	0	26%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.0	6	0.60	0	20%	0
BUF J. Doan	2.0	1	0.56	0	23%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.8	1	0.33	1	16%	1
DET J. Faulk	1.6	0	0.41	0	9%	0
DET A. Copp	1.6	1	0.55	0	17%	0
BUF J. Norris	1.6	2	0.63	0	28%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.6	3	0.35	1	16%	0
DET D. Perron	1.5	0	0.45	0	20%	0
BUF O. Power	1.5	2	0.40	0	8%	0
DET J. Compher	1.4	1	0.45	0	18%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.4	1	0.42	0	14%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	3	0.45	1	11%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	1	0.17	0	6%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.2	0	0.37	1	15%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.2	0	0.38	0	8%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.2	0	0.61	0	18%	0
BUF L. Stanley	1.2	0	0.27	0	6%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	1	0.33	0	9%	0
BUF S. Carrick	1.1	0	0.25	0	12%	0
BUF T. Pearson	1.1	0	0.27	1	12%	0
BUF P. Krebs	1.1	1	0.40	1	12%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.0	0	0.24	0	10%	0
BUF C. Timmins	1.0	1	0.24	1	4%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	0.9	1	0.20	0	8%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.6	1	0.12	0	3%	0
DET D. Shine	0.6	0	0.16	0	9%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.6	1	0.11	1	3%	1

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.