CAR beat DET 4-2, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 2.51. J. Roslovic led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Rasmussen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. F. Andersen stopped 24 of 26.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.51 xGCAR 2.71 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:28 | 2:32 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:26 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 9:32 | 0:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:43 | 2:40 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 2:27 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 2:39 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 1:19 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:54 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:22 | 1:31 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:16 | 1:24 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| D. Shine | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:24 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | 22:09 | 0:14 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:30 | 2:35 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 18:21 | 0:04 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 1:29 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:48 | 1:30 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:43 | 1:21 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:21 | 2:39 |
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:50 | 2:31 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 21:54 | 2:30 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:11 | 2:40 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 1:20 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:21 | 1:25 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 1:29 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:53 | 2:35 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.7, CAR 3.3 | DET 2, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DET 25.2, CAR 31.3 | DET 26, CAR 32 |
| Win chance | CAR 60% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.6 | 2 | 1.09 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 1 | 0.91 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.6 | 4 | 0.70 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.3 | 4 | 0.75 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.3 | 4 | 0.48 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 1 | 0.81 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 2.0 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.7 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.7 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR S. Morrow | 1.5 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.4 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.3 | 4 | 0.27 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 5 | 0.27 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.0 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET D. Shine | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.4 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.