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Game Recap
DET2
CAR5
CAR beat DET 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.18 expected goals to 2.44. CAR outshot DET 38 to 20. S. Gostisbehere led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). E. Robinson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. B. Bussi stopped 18 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CAR | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 12:39DETM. Rasmussen0.16 xG
- 2nd 3:22CARJ. Blake0.10 xG
- 2nd 4:37CARE. Robinson0.19 xG
- 2nd 15:22CARS. Gostisbehere0.05 xG
- 3rd 3:11DETA. CoppPP0.31 xG
- 3rd 13:09CARA. Svechnikov0.23 xG
- 3rd 18:39CARJ. MartinookEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
DETCAR
20Shots on goal38
2.44Expected goals5.18
37Shot attempts76
145v5 shots on goal33
1/2Power play0/1
22Hits22
17Blocked shots6
4Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways16
2Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.44 xGCAR 5.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Copp | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 1:26 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:18 |
| J. Leonard | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:40 | 1:29 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 20:26 | 2:08 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 19:38 | 2:07 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:50 | 2:04 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:15 | 2:09 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 1:32 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Danielson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 1:33 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:27 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 26:24 | 2:10 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:32 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 16:36 | 1:54 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:18 | 1:59 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 1:57 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:01 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:55 | 1:09 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:55 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 20:03 | 1:56 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:59 | 0:06 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:04 | 0:03 |
| J. Nystrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 60:00 | Win |
| P. Kochetkov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1D. Larkin13:26L. Raymond14:53E. Finnie13:34
Line 2J. Compher13:37M. Rasmussen11:44M. Appleton12:39
Line 3A. Copp12:24A. DeBrincat13:39J. Leonard11:03
Line 4E. Soderblom9:11N. Danielson10:25M. Kasper12:37
Pair 1S. Edvinsson20:11M. Seider19:50
Pair 2B. Chiarot16:22A. Sandin-Pellikka14:49
Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker14:31A. Johansson14:40
CAR
Line 1S. Aho13:20A. Svechnikov13:10L. Stankoven12:39
Line 2N. Ehlers13:24J. Blake12:30J. Kotkaniemi11:51
Line 3M. Jankowski12:04E. Robinson12:47T. Hall12:32
Line 4J. Staal12:37J. Martinook11:43W. Carrier11:08
Pair 1S. Walker20:21A. Nikishin20:26
Pair 2S. Gostisbehere15:22J. Chatfield15:10
Pair 3M. Reilly14:25J. Nystrom14:06
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.7, CAR 3.2 | DET 2, CAR 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 24.7, CAR 30.8 | DET 20, CAR 38 |
| Win chance | CAR 58% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 1 | 0.88 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.7 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 3 | 0.78 | 3 | 28% | 1 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.5 | 0 | 0.99 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.3 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.2 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.2 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.8 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 4 | 0.72 | 3 | 12% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.6 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.5 | 5 | 0.38 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR M. Reilly | 1.3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Leonard | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| DET N. Danielson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| CAR J. Nystrom | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.