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Game Recap
DET2
CAR5
CAR beat DET 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.61 expected goals to 2.18. T. Hall led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Chiarot had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. F. Andersen stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| CAR | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 14:05CART. Hall0.21 xG
- 1st 19:52CARS. AhoPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 2:52CARE. Robinson0.25 xG
- 2nd 18:26DETS. Edvinsson0.10 xG
- 2nd 19:13DETP. Kane0.13 xG
- 3rd 2:18CARS. Gostisbehere0.08 xG
- 3rd 5:30CARJ. Blake0.15 xG
Team Stats
DETCAR
29Shots on goal36
2.18Expected goals3.61
39Shot attempts70
265v5 shots on goal29
0/1Power play1/4
26Hits20
23Blocked shots6
10Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways19
2Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.18 xGCAR 3.61 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:39 | 0:25 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:31 | 0:00 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:25 |
| P. Kane | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:25 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:25 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 9:10 | 0:00 |
| D. Shine | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25:07 | 0:25 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:21 | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:33 | 2:04 |
| J. Blake | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:47 | 2:03 |
| S. Aho | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 | 2:23 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:56 | 2:09 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:46 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:50 | 2:09 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 1:42 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:12 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:23 | 1:47 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 0:46 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:30 | 0:50 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:43 | 3:14 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:11 | 0:02 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:57 | 1:11 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:48 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:44 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Andersen | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| B. Bussi | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1A. Copp13:27A. DeBrincat14:24P. Kane13:46
Line 2J. Compher13:18M. Appleton13:26E. Finnie12:14
Line 3L. Raymond15:19M. Kasper13:57D. Larkin15:00
Line 4D. Shine8:15M. Rasmussen10:28J. Riemsdyk9:10
Pair 1M. Seider20:17S. Edvinsson18:57
Pair 2B. Chiarot20:04J. Bernard-Docker18:37
Pair 3A. Johansson12:56A. Sandin-Pellikka11:35
CAR
Line 1A. Svechnikov15:41S. Aho13:57S. Jarvis13:35
Line 2J. Staal14:34J. Martinook14:00N. Ehlers13:54
Line 3L. Stankoven13:36J. Blake14:24T. Hall13:07
Line 4M. Jankowski8:40W. Carrier8:55E. Robinson8:35
Pair 2J. Slavin17:53J. Chatfield18:13
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere14:45A. Nikishin14:01
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.8, CAR 3.4 | DET 2, CAR 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 23.6, CAR 31.0 | DET 29, CAR 36 |
| Win chance | CAR 61% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.8 | 5 | 0.86 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.6 | 4 | 0.84 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.5 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.5 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.3 | 4 | 0.96 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.2 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 0 | 0.84 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 1.9 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.9 | 2 | 0.68 | 3 | 13% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 1.8 | 5 | 0.48 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 3 | 20% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.4 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.3 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.0 | 5 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.0 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET D. Shine | 0.6 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.