Game Recap: DET 5, CBJ 6 (SO), December 4, 2025

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Game Recap

DET5

Final/SOThu, Dec 4, 2025Every game that night

CBJ6

CBJ beat DET 6-5 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 3.50 expected goals to 5.16. Z. Werenski led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). D. Larkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. E. Merzlikins stopped 28 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DET	0	3	2	0	5
CBJ	1	3	1	1	6

1st 17:55CBJI. Provorov0.02 xG
2nd 1:09DETD. LarkinPP0.06 xG
2nd 5:18CBJK. MarchenkoPP0.12 xG
2nd 7:11CBJK. Johnson0.60 xG
2nd 9:08DETL. RaymondPP0.09 xG
2nd 10:20DETJ. van RiemsdykPP0.62 xG
2nd 13:50CBJA. FantilliPP0.16 xG
3rd 9:35DETP. Kane0.06 xG
3rd 11:38DETA. DeBrincat0.04 xG
3rd 18:29CBJA. Fantilli0.06 xG

Team Stats

DETCBJ

33Shots on goal32

5.16Expected goals3.50

58Shot attempts73

215v5 shots on goal24

3/5Power play2/3

15Hits24

21Blocked shots11

6Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways14

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 5.16 xGCBJ 3.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET33 on goal, 5 scored

CBJ32 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kane	RW	1	1	2	4	2	1	+2	0	20:49	4:39
L. Raymond	LW	1	1	2	1	1	2	0	0	20:47	4:55
A. Copp	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+1	0	18:25	2:41
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	0	0	22:47	4:15
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	20:49	4:29
E. Finnie	C	0	1	1	2	2	2	-1	0	15:40	1:57
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	0	14:02	2:28
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:00	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:46	0:12
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	12:03	0:00
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	10:36	1:57
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	10:06	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	2	2	1	0	4	+2	2	28:34	4:24
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-2	2	13:40	2:10
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	0	26:42	0:23
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-3	0	20:58	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	16:13	0:25
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	32	27	5	.844	65:00	OT loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

CBJ Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Monahan	C	0	3	3	0	1	1	+1	0	19:54	1:24
A. Fantilli	C	2	0	2	3	1	0	+1	0	22:38	1:24
K. Marchenko	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	19:43	1:24
C. Sillinger	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	18:07	1:13
K. Johnson	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:32	0:00
B. Gaunce	C	0	1	1	2	10	0	+1	0	11:19	0:00
D. Voronkov	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	6	18:30	1:24
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:05	1:13
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:01	0:00
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:35	0:00
E. Chinakhov	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	7:44	0:00
L. Del Bel Belluz	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	7:04	0:00
Z. Werenski	D	0	3	3	3	1	1	+2	0	28:29	2:37
I. Provorov	D	1	0	1	4	0	2	+1	2	29:27	1:13
D. Mateychuk	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:50	0:00
D. Severson	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	0	21:30	1:13
D. Fabbro	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:09	0:00
B. Smith	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	8:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Merzlikins	33	28	5	.848	63:36	Win
J. Greaves	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1P. Kane13:22A. Copp13:38A. DeBrincat14:17

Line 2D. Larkin13:43L. Raymond13:15E. Finnie11:52

Line 3J. Riemsdyk11:34J. Compher11:51M. Rasmussen12:31

Line 4E. Soderblom12:03M. Kasper10:06N. Danielson8:39

Pair 1S. Edvinsson23:49M. Seider20:46

Pair 2B. Chiarot16:50A. Sandin-Pellikka11:03

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker10:42A. Johansson14:59

CBJ

Line 1D. Voronkov16:09A. Fantilli17:16K. Marchenko15:25

Line 2C. Sillinger15:17K. Johnson12:15S. Monahan11:51

Line 3C. Coyle10:57M. Wood11:23I. Lundestrom11:10

Line 4B. Gaunce10:05E. Chinakhov7:44L. Belluz7:04

Pair 1I. Provorov22:23Z. Werenski19:37

Pair 2D. Severson19:11D. Mateychuk17:01

Pair 3B. Smith8:48D. Fabbro11:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCam Talbot CBJ First game against DET since he left (his team until Apr 2026)27 saves on 32

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.3, CBJ 3.2	DET 5, CBJ 6
Total goals	6.5	11
Shots on goal	DET 30.8, CBJ 29.0	DET 33, CBJ 32
Win chance	DET 51%	CBJ won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	3	0.89	1	34%	1
CBJ Z. Werenski	3.4	3	1.01	3	21%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.2	6	1.01	1	36%	1
CBJ A. Fantilli	2.8	3	0.86	2	34%	2
CBJ K. Marchenko	2.8	4	0.93	1	33%	1
DET P. Kane	2.6	4	0.81	2	24%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.6	1	0.96	2	29%	1
CBJ M. Wood	2.2	2	0.45	0	20%	0
DET M. Seider	2.2	1	0.57	2	10%	0
CBJ S. Monahan	2.1	0	0.81	3	25%	0
CBJ D. Voronkov	2.0	1	0.67	0	26%	0
CBJ C. Sillinger	1.9	4	0.49	1	17%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.8	2	0.43	1	18%	0
CBJ I. Provorov	1.7	4	0.45	1	10%	1
DET M. Kasper	1.6	0	0.31	0	16%	0
CBJ C. Coyle	1.5	1	0.60	0	21%	0
CBJ K. Johnson	1.5	2	0.54	1	19%	1
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.4	4	0.41	1	17%	1
DET B. Chiarot	1.4	0	0.24	0	8%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.4	2	0.28	0	10%	0
CBJ E. Chinakhov	1.3	2	0.30	0	14%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.3	1	0.37	0	11%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.3	3	0.30	0	14%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.2	1	0.28	1	8%	0
CBJ B. Gaunce	1.2	2	0.24	1	12%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	1	0.35	0	15%	0
DET A. Copp	1.2	3	0.37	2	13%	0
CBJ D. Severson	1.2	3	0.42	0	10%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	1	0.31	0	14%	0
CBJ D. Mateychuk	1.1	0	0.38	1	12%	0
CBJ D. Fabbro	1.0	0	0.26	0	6%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
CBJ L. Belluz	1.0	1	0.34	0	11%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	0	0.15	0	5%	0
CBJ B. Smith	0.8	0	0.20	0	5%	0
CBJ I. Lundestrom	0.8	0	0.23	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.