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Game Recap
DET4
FinalWed, Dec 10, 2025Every game that night
CGY3

DET beat CGY 4-3, with the chances close: 3.20 expected goals to 3.08. CGY outshot DET 37 to 29. A. DeBrincat led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Coronato had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Gibson stopped 34 of 37.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
DET2204
CGY0033
  1. 1st 1:02DETA. DeBrincat0.21 xG
  2. 1st 4:33DETA. Sandin-Pellikka0.14 xG
  3. 2nd 7:41DETA. DeBrincat0.22 xG
  4. 2nd 9:09DETD. Larkin0.22 xG
  5. 3rd 8:02CGYJ. Farabee0.36 xG
  6. 3rd 9:07CGYM. Coronato0.04 xG
  7. 3rd 14:40CGYM. Weegar0.03 xG

Team Stats

DETCGY
29Shots on goal37
3.20Expected goals3.08
40Shot attempts85
285v5 shots on goal31
0/2Power play0/3
20Hits15
26Blocked shots5
8Penalty minutes8
18Giveaways17
2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.20 xGCGY 3.08 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdDET goal, 1:02DET goal, 4:33DET goal, 7:41DET goal, 9:09CGY goal, 8:02CGY goal, 9:07CGY goal, 14:40

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET28 on goal, 4 scored
CGY37 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. DeBrincatRW213413+3014:561:12
A. CoppC022100+3216:441:06
P. KaneRW022101+3014:231:09
L. RaymondLW011110+1018:400:46
D. LarkinC1013010217:540:49
E. FinnieC000411+1016:510:43
J. CompherLW000011-1015:160:08
M. RasmussenC000102-2014:180:08
M. KasperC0001340212:280:03
N. DanielsonC0001100011:480:43
J. van RiemsdykLW000100-2011:440:51
E. SoderblomLW0005000010:270:00
A. Sandin-PellikkaD101200+2016:280:46
M. SeiderD0003250028:230:49
B. ChiarotD000023+1024:250:31
A. JohanssonD0000210017:330:00
T. HamonicD0000320217:050:31
S. EdvinssonD000132+1014:370:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Gibson37343.91960:00Win
C. Talbot000–0:00

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. KadriC0223000019:483:09
M. CoronatoRW101710+1021:422:41
J. FarabeeLW1013200014:490:00
J. HuberdeauLW0001300020:332:34
M. FrostC0001000017:571:39
M. BacklundC000301-1017:081:19
C. ZaryC000200-1016:291:48
B. ColemanLW000100-1215:071:00
Y. SharangovichC0003000014:551:42
R. LombergLW000130-128:190:00
J. BeecherC000100-108:160:00
A. KlapkaRW000111-147:390:00
M. WeegarD101420-1025:151:25
R. AnderssonD011401-1023:022:38
Y. KuznetsovD000000-2020:410:06
K. BahlD000031-2017:440:13
H. BrzustewiczD000100+1015:470:00
J. HanleyD000101+1012:380:01
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Cooley29254.86258:11Loss
D. Wolf000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1L. Raymond15:20E. Finnie15:00D. Larkin14:31
Line 2P. Kane12:40A. DeBrincat12:34A. Copp12:28
Line 3J. Compher12:26M. Rasmussen12:02J. Riemsdyk10:53
Line 4M. Kasper11:27N. Danielson10:36E. Soderblom10:27
Pair 1B. Chiarot19:13A. Sandin-Pellikka14:30
Pair 2M. Seider23:55S. Edvinsson12:20
Pair 3T. Hamonic13:42A. Johansson16:36

CGY

Line 1J. Huberdeau15:01M. Coronato17:12M. Frost13:12
Line 2M. Backlund14:59C. Zary14:03B. Coleman13:07
Line 3N. Kadri14:06J. Farabee12:12Y. Sharangovich12:32
Line 4R. Lomberg8:19J. Beecher7:51A. Klapka7:39
Pair 1M. Weegar21:05Y. Kuznetsov18:11
Pair 2K. Bahl15:54R. Andersson16:53
Pair 3H. Brzustewicz15:47J. Hanley12:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreDET 3.0, CGY 3.0DET 4, CGY 3
Total goals5.97
Shots on goalDET 28.3, CGY 29.3DET 29, CGY 37
Win chanceCGY 51%DET won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CGY N. Kadri3.130.90230%0
DET A. DeBrincat3.140.79331%2
DET D. Larkin2.930.86132%1
DET P. Kane2.510.72222%0
CGY M. Coronato2.470.63124%1
DET L. Raymond2.310.85126%0
CGY B. Coleman2.310.54024%0
CGY R. Andersson2.240.60114%0
CGY M. Backlund2.230.54019%0
CGY M. Weegar2.140.49110%1
DET M. Seider2.030.5207%0
CGY J. Farabee1.930.45119%1
CGY J. Huberdeau1.810.80025%0
CGY M. Frost1.810.56019%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.730.52024%0
CGY C. Zary1.720.44019%0
DET E. Finnie1.740.38016%0
DET J. Riemsdyk1.610.42017%0
DET M. Kasper1.410.27014%0
DET A. Copp1.310.40214%0
DET N. Danielson1.310.27010%0
DET B. Chiarot1.300.2106%0
DET M. Rasmussen1.210.32014%0
DET S. Edvinsson1.210.3508%0
DET J. Compher1.200.34014%0
DET E. Soderblom1.250.26012%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.100.3409%0
CGY K. Bahl1.100.2706%0
CGY A. Klapka1.010.23011%0
DET T. Hamonic1.000.1303%0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka0.920.2614%1
CGY R. Lomberg0.910.1407%0
DET A. Johansson0.700.1203%0
CGY J. Beecher0.610.1508%0
CGY J. Hanley0.610.1403%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.