Game Recap: DET 1, CGY 4, October 24, 2026

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Game Recap

DET1

FinalSat, Oct 24, 2026Every game that night

CGY4

CGY beat DET 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.57 expected goals to 2.87. J. Farabee led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Copp had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. D. Cooley stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	0	1	0	1
CGY	1	3	0	4

1st 17:50CGYJ. Farabee0.16 xG
2nd 2:22DETA. Copp0.11 xG
2nd 8:38CGYZ. ParekhPP0.04 xG
2nd 17:04CGYR. Strome0.27 xG
2nd 18:30CGYM. GridinPP0.20 xG

Team Stats

DETCGY

29Shots on goal25

2.87Expected goals1.57

57Shot attempts37

245v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play2/2

18Hits20

6Blocked shots15

11Penalty minutes11

21Giveaways9

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.87 xGCGY 1.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET30 on goal, 1 scored

CGY24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Compher	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	0	15:32	0:00
A. Copp	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	14:36	1:25
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	2	21:56	2:39
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	20:47	2:35
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:19	2:35
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	19:34	2:37
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:22	1:25
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	2	16:34	1:21
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:45	1:23
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:20	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:37	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	2	24:43	2:47
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:23	1:13
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	5	19:35	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	+1	0	14:06	0:00
W. Wallinder	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:22	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:14	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	25	21	4	.840	60:00	Loss
M. Postava	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Farabee	LW	1	2	3	3	1	1	+1	0	18:52	0:40
M. Gridin	RW	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	17:55	0:40
M. Coronato	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	16:09	0:40
A. Klapka	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	+1	0	14:03	0:00
R. Strome	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	2	13:38	0:00
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	12:20	0:40
J. Castagna	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	2	17:16	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:42	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:48	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	12:36	0:00
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	12:16	0:00
A. Suniev	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	9:54	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	0	25:03	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:40	0:40
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:13	0:00
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	20:31	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	5	18:26	0:00
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1V. Arvidsson17:17A. DeBrincat18:23E. Finnie15:58

Line 2D. Larkin15:59L. Raymond17:33M. Brandsegg-Nygård15:13

Line 3A. Copp12:50J. Compher15:11M. Rasmussen12:22

Line 4N. Danielson10:39K. Kolesar8:37

Pair 1B. Chiarot19:35M. Seider21:56

Pair 2J. Faulk17:39W. Wallinder11:55

Pair 3A. Englund12:53A. Johansson11:55

CGY

Line 1J. Farabee15:02M. Coronato14:58B. Jones13:16

Line 2R. Strome13:38M. Gridin16:21M. Pospisil12:57

Line 3J. Castagna16:14A. Klapka14:03B. Othmann12:16

Line 4Y. Sharangovich10:10A. Suniev9:54M. Frost11:01

Pair 1K. Bahl22:21S. Nemec21:32

Pair 2J. Middleton15:59Z. Whitecloud16:48

Pair 3Y. Kuznetsov15:10Z. Parekh15:00

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	-105	-115	3	Under
DET D. Larkin	2.5	-140	+115	6	Over
CGY J. Farabee	2.5	+160	-180	3	Over
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+100	-122	2	Under
CGY M. Coronato	2.5	+106	-120	2	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-110	-106	1	Under
DET A. Copp	1.5	+105	-125	5	Over
CGY A. Suniev	1.5	+115	-145	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	+100	-125	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	1.5	+105	-120	1	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	-145	+120	3	Over
CGY M. Frost	1.5	-130	+105	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	1.5	-140	+120	4	Over
DET M. Seider	1.5	-190	+140	3	Over
CGY R. Strome	1.5	+125	-190	3	Over
CGY S. Nemec	1.5	+100	-125	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	-125	+115	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	1.5	+100	-120	2	Over

5 of 32 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+450	-700	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+155	-180	0	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
CGY A. Klapka	0.5	+490	-900	0	Under
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
CGY B. Jones	0.5	+400	-700	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+215	-240	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+340	-600	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+280	-370	1	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
CGY J. Middleton	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
CGY K. Bahl	0.5	+1500	-4000	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+220	-280	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+240	-350	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+350	-450	1	Over
CGY M. Pospisil	0.5	+650	-800	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+410	-750	1	Over
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+240	-350	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	0.5	+2300	-2800	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+333	-500	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+600	-1200	1	Over
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under

5 of 21 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+125	-150	0	Under
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+290	-425	0	Under
CGY B. Jones	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+135	-175	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+200	-220	2	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
CGY K. Bahl	0.5	+320	-425	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+115	-140	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+300	-375	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+164	-180	2	Over
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+175	-220	1	Over
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+200	-240	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+110	-140	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+265	-300	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+235	-300	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+160	-190	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+260	-340	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+425	-500	0	Under

8 of 21 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+145	-160	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-180	+155	0	Under
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
CGY B. Jones	0.5	+170	-230	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	-150	+125	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+135	-165	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	-105	-110	3	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+170	-220	0	Under
CGY K. Bahl	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-155	+135	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+145	-170	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	-130	+100	2	Over
CGY M. Frost	0.5	-115	-110	1	Over
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+110	-132	2	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	-125	+100	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+148	-165	1	Over
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+168	-200	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-132	+115	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+140	-175	1	Over
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under

4 of 17 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+210	-260	0	Under
CGY A. Suniev	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+235	-325	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+340	-600	2	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+210	-280	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+220	-375	2	Over
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+325	-425	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+185	-235	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+300	-375	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+260	-450	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CGY D. Cooley	26.5	-115	-102	28	Over
DET J. Gibson	23.5	-110	-102	21	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DET M. Seider	2.5	-105	-135	1	Under
CGY J. Middleton	1.5	-135	-105	1	Under
CGY Z. Whitecloud	1.5	-170	+120	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.1, CGY 2.8	DET 1, CGY 4
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	DET 29.7, CGY 27.5	DET 29, CGY 25
Win chance	DET 55%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.6	3	1.00	0	35%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.1	6	0.92	0	34%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	3.0	1	0.85	0	29%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.5	2	0.95	0	29%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	2	0.63	2	23%	0
DET M. Seider	2.1	3	0.64	0	9%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	2.1	3	0.49	0	16%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.1	3	0.62	3	24%	1
DET E. Finnie	1.9	0	0.51	0	21%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.8	4	0.55	2	18%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.7	0	0.52	1	20%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.7	0	0.45	0	21%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.6	1	0.42	0	9%	0
DET A. Copp	1.6	5	0.52	1	17%	1
CGY S. Nemec	1.6	0	0.38	0	11%	0
CGY A. Suniev	1.5	0	0.38	0	15%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.5	2	0.33	1	9%	1
CGY B. Jones	1.4	0	0.16	0	9%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.4	1	0.30	0	10%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.4	3	0.46	1	15%	1
DET M. Rasmussen	1.3	1	0.36	0	16%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	0	0.21	0	6%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	0	0.40	1	16%	0
CGY J. Castagna	1.1	0	0.31	0	14%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	3	0.27	1	11%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.0	1	0.19	0	5%	0
CGY J. Middleton	1.0	1	0.25	0	6%	0
DET W. Wallinder	1.0	1	0.24	0	5%	0
CGY B. Othmann	0.9	2	0.15	0	8%	0
DET N. Danielson	0.9	0	0.21	0	8%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.9	2	0.24	0	6%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.8	1	0.25	1	5%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	2	0.23	0	4%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	1	0.14	0	3%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.