Game Recap: DET 4, CHI 1, November 6, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

DET4

FinalWed, Nov 6, 2024Every game that night

CHI1

DET beat CHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.42 expected goals to 1.83. D. Larkin led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Donato had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Talbot stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	1	1	2	4
CHI	0	1	0	1

1st 19:58DETA. DeBrincat0.13 xG
2nd 8:42CHIN. Foligno0.01 xG
2nd 12:27DETD. Larkin0.17 xG
3rd 3:03DETJ. Veleno0.12 xG
3rd 17:47DETA. CoppEN0.59 xG

Team Stats

DETCHI

25Shots on goal29

3.42Expected goals1.83

54Shot attempts58

195v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play0/2

7Hits22

15Blocked shots15

4Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways18

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.42 xGCHI 1.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET24 on goal, 4 scored

CHI29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	+2	0	19:13	3:00
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	1	2	2	1	1	+2	0	17:58	2:48
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	17:23	2:54
A. Copp	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:37	0:01
M. Rasmussen	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	12:06	0:01
J. Veleno	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	10:43	0:00
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	0	19:04	2:59
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	15:32	1:12
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	14:36	1:01
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:37	1:00
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:22	0:01
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:11	1:02
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+4	0	24:37	2:30
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+4	0	21:49	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:32	0:01
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	19:07	0:22
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	15:53	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	15:01	1:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	29	28	1	.966	59:39	Win
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	2	4	0	-1	0	18:17	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	-1	0	16:20	2:13
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	2	17:22	2:18
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	-2	0	17:06	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	16:25	1:45
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	-1	0	15:41	2:17
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:30	0:05
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	13:54	2:03
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:54	0:02
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:01	1:57
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	12:00	1:39
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:55	1:36
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	-1	0	20:19	0:05
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	2	5	1	+1	0	26:30	2:16
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-4	0	25:01	1:44
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	0	18:31	0:00
I. Phillips	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	12:48	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	11:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	24	21	3	.875	59:42	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPatrick Kane CHI Faces DET, his team until Apr 20262 SOG
Old teamTyler Bertuzzi CHI Faces DET, his team until Feb 20231 A, 2 SOG
HometownJ.T. Compher DET Plays near home (born in Northbrook)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.4, CHI 3.0	DET 4, CHI 1
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	DET 29.1, CHI 30.1	DET 25, CHI 29
Win chance	DET 55%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CHI C. Bedard	3.2	4	0.92	0	26%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.0	4	0.97	2	36%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	2.7	2	0.80	2	30%	1
CHI S. Jones	2.6	2	0.60	0	13%	0
DET P. Kane	2.5	2	0.83	0	25%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.3	3	0.64	0	23%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.2	2	0.61	1	25%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.1	5	0.49	0	20%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.1	1	0.87	1	28%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	2.0	1	0.70	0	25%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.9	2	0.51	1	19%	1
DET V. Tarasenko	1.9	2	0.61	0	25%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	0	0.41	0	19%	0
DET M. Seider	1.7	1	0.55	1	7%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.7	0	0.42	0	19%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.7	0	0.35	0	16%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.5	1	0.53	0	17%	0
DET J. Compher	1.5	1	0.57	0	22%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.5	1	0.41	0	18%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.4	0	0.37	0	13%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	1	0.26	0	6%	0
DET A. Copp	1.3	1	0.47	1	17%	1
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	1	0.26	1	8%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	1	0.40	1	16%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.2	2	0.32	0	15%	0
DET J. Petry	1.1	0	0.35	0	5%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	0	0.33	0	5%	0
DET C. Fischer	1.1	0	0.26	0	11%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.1	2	0.37	0	5%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.0	2	0.27	1	8%	0
CHI P. Maroon	1.0	1	0.28	0	10%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.9	2	0.25	1	11%	1
DET A. Johansson	0.8	1	0.14	0	3%	0
CHI I. Phillips	0.8	2	0.21	0	4%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.8	3	0.24	0	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.6	1	0.28	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.