DET beat CHI 4-0, with the chances close: 2.83 expected goals to 2.42. A. DeBrincat led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Gibson stopped 26 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 0:55DETA. DeBrincat0.08 xG
- 1st 4:35DETP. Kane0.08 xG
- 2nd 14:23DETE. Finnie0.05 xG
- 3rd 16:14DETA. DeBrincatEN0.56 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.83 xGCHI 2.42 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 2 | 18:43 | 3:24 |
| P. Kane | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:59 | 3:13 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:49 | 3:31 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 17:23 | 2:04 |
| E. Finnie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:02 | 2:28 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:44 | 3:25 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:31 | 0:16 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:12 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:51 | 2:16 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:25 | 0:07 |
| N. Danielson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 2:11 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 2:48 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 26:10 | 3:06 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 23:30 | 0:08 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:38 | 0:19 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:08 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11:07 | 0:04 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:41 | 4:04 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:24 | 4:52 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:52 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 17:41 | 4:08 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Lardis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:32 | 4:52 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 1:04 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:26 | 1:48 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 1:04 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| D. Toninato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:59 | 3:32 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:39 | 2:24 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:28 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:02 | 0:00 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 58:37 | Loss |
| S. Knight | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
CHI
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.4, CHI 2.8 | DET 4, CHI 0 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | DET 30.6, CHI 25.4 | DET 24, CHI 26 |
| Win chance | DET 60% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.3 | 3 | 0.90 | 3 | 33% | 2 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.0 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 5 | 0.81 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.4 | 3 | 0.95 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.0 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.9 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.9 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.8 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.8 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET N. Danielson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.3 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI O. Moore | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.1 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI D. Toninato | 0.6 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.