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Game Recap
DET2
COL0
DET beat COL 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.11 expected goals to 2.19. L. Raymond led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Finnie had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Gibson stopped 21 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 0:33DETM. Kasper0.20 xG
- 3rd 19:29DETL. RaymondEN0.93 xG
Team Stats
DETCOL
25Shots on goal21
3.11Expected goals2.19
58Shot attempts57
205v5 shots on goal17
0/2Power play0/2
27Hits29
17Blocked shots15
4Penalty minutes14
9Giveaways16
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.11 xGCOL 2.19 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:25 | 2:02 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:31 | 2:05 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:04 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 2:01 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:59 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 1:56 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:29 | 1:58 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 27:34 | 2:06 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:27 | 0:01 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:21 | 1:53 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 1:55 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 26:07 | 3:55 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 | 24:02 | 3:28 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22:01 | 3:27 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:56 | 3:07 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:53 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:33 |
| G. Brindley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:47 | 0:32 |
| T. Makar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5:44 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bardakov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 24:50 | 3:27 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:04 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:29 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:00 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 0:05 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 24 | 23 | 1 | .958 | 57:14 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1D. Larkin15:58L. Raymond13:58M. Kasper14:15
Line 2M. Appleton13:58J. Compher13:36E. Finnie12:42
Line 3P. Kane11:49A. DeBrincat13:32A. Copp12:45
Line 4J. Riemsdyk8:22E. Soderblom7:53M. Rasmussen8:40
Pair 1J. Bernard-Docker19:17M. Seider20:48
Pair 2T. Hamonic12:53A. Johansson15:38
Pair 3B. Chiarot17:41A. Sandin-Pellikka12:25
COL
Line 1N. MacKinnon19:26V. Nichushkin17:10A. Lehkonen15:34
Line 2J. Drury14:01J. Kiviranta12:53P. Kelly13:44
Line 3B. Nelson13:19R. Colton11:36V. Olofsson12:28
Line 4Z. Bardakov5:30T. Makar5:44G. Brindley6:11
Pair 2S. Girard16:30S. Malinski15:58
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.9, COL 4.0 | DET 2, COL 0 |
| Total goals | 6.9 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | DET 25.8, COL 33.3 | DET 25, COL 21 |
| Win chance | COL 67% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.3 | 5 | 1.62 | 0 | 45% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.2 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.9 | 2 | 1.14 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 1 | 0.75 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.96 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.3 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.3 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 2.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.2 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 2.1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 3 | 0.73 | 2 | 23% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.8 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.7 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.6 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.4 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.4 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL G. Brindley | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.0 | 4 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL T. Makar | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL Z. Bardakov | 0.6 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.