Game Recap: DET 0, COL 4, November 7, 2026

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Game Recap

DET0

FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026Every game that night

COL4

COL beat DET 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.77 expected goals to 2.20. M. Necas led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). M. Blackwood stopped 27 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	0	0	0	0
COL	0	2	2	4

2nd 9:46COLM. NecasPP0.76 xG
2nd 12:30COLN. MacKinnonPP0.07 xG
3rd 7:15COLM. Necas0.23 xG
3rd 9:45COLC. MakarPP0.06 xG

Team Stats

DETCOL

27Shots on goal29

2.20Expected goals3.77

48Shot attempts58

255v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play3/5

24Hits20

19Blocked shots13

19Penalty minutes15

22Giveaways16

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.20 xGCOL 3.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET26 on goal, 0 scored

COL28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Copp	C	1	1	1	-1	0	19:14	1:52
E. Finnie	C	1	1	0	0	0	19:04	3:36
L. Raymond	LW	2	1	1	-1	0	18:23	3:05
V. Arvidsson	LW	3	0	1	0	0	16:34	3:21
J. Compher	LW	2	1	1	0	0	16:16	1:54
A. DeBrincat	RW	2	0	1	0	0	15:59	3:31
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	3	4	1	-1	0	15:34	1:35
M. Rasmussen	C	1	3	0	0	0	13:21	1:38
S. Dries	C	2	1	1	0	0	12:47	0:05
J. Leonard	LW	5	0	0	0	0	10:21	0:13
C. Mazur	LW	1	2	1	0	0	9:50	0:10
K. Kolesar	RW	0	2	0	0	2	9:41	0:00
J. Faulk	D	2	0	3	0	2	24:14	3:17
W. Wallinder	D	0	1	2	0	2	21:23	0:12
B. Chiarot	D	1	2	2	-1	2	20:28	1:11
M. Seider	D	0	0	4	-1	9	19:26	1:10
A. Englund	D	0	3	0	0	0	17:03	0:00
A. Johansson	D	1	2	0	0	2	12:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	29	25	4	.862	60:00	Loss
M. Postava	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	2	2	4	2	0	2	+1	0	18:37	5:52
N. MacKinnon	C	1	2	3	4	0	0	+1	0	20:17	5:50
T. Hughes	RW	0	1	1	4	5	0	0	0	17:09	5:45
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	17:24	4:41
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	16:26	1:21
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:17	0:59
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:45	0:28
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:47	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7	12:41	0:59
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:22	0:00
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	11:35	1:04
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:25	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	2	3	2	0	0	+1	0	22:43	6:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	24:01	0:49
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:13	0:17
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	18:28	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	15:55	0:00
N. Juulsen	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	4	11:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	27	27	0	1.000	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1A. Copp14:56L. Raymond14:47M. Brandsegg-Nygård13:59

Line 2A. DeBrincat12:28E. Finnie14:00V. Arvidsson13:13

Line 3J. Compher10:43M. Rasmussen9:50J. Leonard9:27

Line 4K. Kolesar9:12C. Mazur9:40S. Dries8:54

Pair 1J. Faulk19:11W. Wallinder18:44

Pair 2B. Chiarot16:06M. Seider14:30

Pair 3A. Englund14:11A. Johansson12:04

COL

Line 1A. Lehkonen13:34N. MacKinnon14:07M. Necas12:43

Line 2N. Kadri12:43G. Landeskog11:42N. Roy11:01

Line 3P. Kelly10:55L. O'Connor10:13F. Svechkov11:25

Line 4B. Nelson11:32T. Hughes11:24J. Schwartz10:31

Pair 1D. Toews19:25S. Malinski16:18

Pair 2B. Kulak17:40C. Makar16:19

Pair 3B. Burns12:46N. Juulsen11:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 22 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+108	-125	2	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	3.5	-115	-105	4	Over
COL C. Makar	2.5	-110	-114	2	Under
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+105	-125	2	Under
COL M. Necas	2.5	+110	-130	2	Under
COL N. Kadri	2.5	+114	-135	3	Over
COL T. Hughes	2.5	+148	-185	4	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-110	+100	3	Over
DET A. Copp	1.5	+110	-136	1	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	1.5	-154	+135	2	Over
COL B. Burns	1.5	-110	+100	2	Over
DET B. Chiarot	1.5	-105	–	1	Under
COL B. Nelson	1.5	-122	+110	2	Over
COL D. Toews	1.5	+100	-127	1	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-150	+115	1	Under
COL G. Landeskog	1.5	+100	-105	1	Under
DET J. Faulk	1.5	-140	–	2	Over
COL J. Schwartz	1.5	+100	-125	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	-135	+109	3	Over
DET M. Rasmussen	1.5	-110	–	1	Under
DET M. Seider	1.5	-155	+130	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	1.5	-122	+100	0	Under

3 of 35 overs hit (9%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+180	-200	0	Under
DET A. Englund	0.5	+3500	–	0	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+195	-230	0	Under
COL B. Burns	0.5	+1200	-1400	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
COL B. Kulak	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+290	-400	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+320	-450	1	Over
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+1500	-4000	0	Under
COL D. Toews	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
COL F. Svechkov	0.5	+850	-1200	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+625	-1000	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+800	-2500	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+350	-600	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+1200	-5000	0	Under
COL L. O'Connor	0.5	+700	-800	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+235	-320	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+460	-650	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+180	-225	2	Over
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+725	-900	0	Under
COL N. Juulsen	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+125	-150	1	Over
COL N. Roy	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
COL P. Kelly	0.5	+600	-800	0	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+1200	-1400	0	Under
COL T. Hughes	0.5	+350	-400	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+210	-290	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under

5 of 19 overs hit (26%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+235	-320	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+230	-235	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-125	+105	2	Over
COL D. Toews	0.5	+172	-210	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+200	-225	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+260	-275	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+255	-335	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+245	-295	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	-115	+105	2	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	-155	+140	2	Over
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+265	-370	0	Under
COL T. Hughes	0.5	+225	-275	1	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+210	-230	0	Under

5 of 19 overs hit (26%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
COL M. Necas	1.5	+170	-225	4	Over
COL N. MacKinnon	1.5	+120	-145	3	Over
DET A. Copp	0.5	+148	-175	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-150	+140	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	-120	+100	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+115	-137	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	-180	+150	3	Over
COL D. Toews	0.5	+125	-140	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	-102	-120	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+135	-150	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-145	+121	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under
COL S. Malinski	0.5	+210	-230	0	Under
COL T. Hughes	0.5	+116	-145	1	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-120	+100	0	Under

4 of 18 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+240	-290	0	Under
COL A. Lehkonen	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
COL B. Nelson	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
COL C. Makar	0.5	+130	-175	3	Over
COL D. Toews	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
COL G. Landeskog	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
COL J. Schwartz	0.5	+400	-1100	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+230	-325	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
COL M. Necas	0.5	+180	-235	3	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
COL N. Kadri	0.5	+240	-350	0	Under
COL N. MacKinnon	0.5	+140	-160	2	Over
COL T. Hughes	0.5	+360	-450	1	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
COL M. Blackwood	22.5	-130	+102	27	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DET B. Chiarot	2.5	+135	-190	2	Under
DET M. Seider	2.5	-160	+115	4	Over
DET J. Faulk	1.5	-165	+120	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 2.9, COL 3.6	DET 0, COL 4
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	DET 26.1, COL 30.7	DET 27, COL 29
Win chance	COL 62%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.6	4	1.45	3	42%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	3.4	2	0.92	0	35%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	2.8	3	0.81	0	31%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	2	1.01	3	25%	1
COL N. Kadri	2.5	3	0.76	0	27%	0
COL T. Hughes	2.4	4	0.67	1	27%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.4	2	0.81	0	26%	0
COL M. Necas	2.4	2	1.07	4	30%	2
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	2	0.73	0	31%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.9	1	0.54	0	24%	0
DET M. Seider	1.8	0	0.58	0	8%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	0	0.40	0	8%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.7	1	0.61	0	25%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.7	2	0.59	0	26%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.6	3	0.45	0	19%	0
COL J. Schwartz	1.6	0	0.50	0	20%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	1	0.50	0	17%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	1	0.47	1	10%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.4	2	0.40	0	8%	0
COL B. Burns	1.4	2	0.27	0	6%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.3	1	0.32	0	15%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	2	0.26	0	5%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	2	0.35	0	14%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	2	0.37	0	14%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	1	0.29	0	12%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.0	1	0.17	0	4%	0
DET S. Dries	1.0	2	0.17	0	10%	0
COL N. Roy	1.0	0	0.35	0	14%	0
DET W. Wallinder	0.8	0	0.22	0	3%	0
COL F. Svechkov	0.8	0	0.27	0	9%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	1	0.16	0	3%	0
DET C. Mazur	0.7	1	0.17	0	7%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0
COL N. Juulsen	0.5	1	0.15	0	2%	0
DET A. Englund	0.4	0	0.09	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 28 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.