Game Recap: DET 3, EDM 2 (SO), January 30, 2025

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Game Recap

DET3

Final/SOThu, Jan 30, 2025Every game that night

EDM2

DET beat EDM 3-2 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 4.26 expected goals to 5.47. EDM outshot DET 47 to 35. D. Larkin had 11 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. A. Lyon stopped 45 of 47.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DET	0	2	0	1	3
EDM	2	0	0	0	2

1st 6:49EDML. DraisaitlPP0.18 xG
1st 10:29EDMJ. Skinner0.06 xG
2nd 9:59DETM. Rasmussen0.04 xG
2nd 11:47DETD. Larkin0.23 xG

Team Stats

DETEDM

35Shots on goal47

4.26Expected goals5.47

67Shot attempts82

225v5 shots on goal31

0/3Power play1/4

23Hits14

19Blocked shots17

8Penalty minutes6

18Giveaways18

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 4.26 xGEDM 5.47 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET35 on goal, 2 scored

EDM47 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	11	0	1	+1	2	25:03	5:04
M. Kasper	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	20:31	3:01
M. Rasmussen	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	13:16	0:54
J. Berggren	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	12:49	0:56
E. Soderblom	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	11:36	0:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	23:42	4:55
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	21:02	5:03
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:59	0:58
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	16:45	0:55
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	9:42	0:01
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	8:37	0:00
D. Shine	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:53	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	+1	2	30:44	4:59
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	5	6	1	+1	0	27:12	0:10
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	20:48	0:03
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	20:47	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	12:09	1:01
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Lyon	47	45	2	.957	65:00	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	-1	0	25:55	5:46
L. Draisaitl	C	1	0	1	10	0	0	-1	2	24:02	5:51
Z. Hyman	LW	0	1	1	7	2	1	+1	2	20:01	5:48
A. Henrique	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	16:31	0:53
J. Skinner	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	11:55	0:50
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	23:09	5:50
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:57	0:54
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	12:42	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:16	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	12:06	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:50	0:00
N. Philp	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	7:26	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	1	1	6	0	0	+1	0	25:40	5:42
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	1	5	3	+1	0	24:08	1:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	22:55	0:56
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:31	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:39	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	-1	0	13:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	35	33	2	.943	64:53	OT loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamViktor Arvidsson DET Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20253 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 2.6, EDM 3.4	DET 3, EDM 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	DET 25.4, EDM 31.6	DET 35, EDM 47
Win chance	EDM 63%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.3	5	1.75	1	42%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	3.1	7	0.86	1	39%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.1	10	1.51	1	46%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.9	11	0.83	1	31%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.7	6	0.90	1	17%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.6	1	0.66	0	26%	0
EDM V. Arvidsson	2.4	3	0.61	0	22%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.4	1	0.46	0	11%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.2	1	0.52	0	13%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.0	3	0.78	0	25%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	2	0.78	0	24%	0
EDM J. Skinner	1.8	3	0.47	1	21%	1
DET V. Tarasenko	1.8	1	0.51	0	21%	0
DET M. Seider	1.7	3	0.50	0	8%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.6	5	0.39	1	17%	0
EDM J. Klingberg	1.6	1	0.52	0	10%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.6	1	0.33	0	7%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	1	0.35	0	14%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.5	0	0.38	0	12%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	2	0.46	1	22%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.3	2	0.34	1	17%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.3	0	0.29	1	14%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.3	1	0.38	0	18%	0
DET A. Copp	1.2	0	0.37	0	14%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	5	0.21	0	6%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	2	0.29	1	13%	1
EDM N. Philp	1.0	2	0.23	0	8%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	1	0.20	0	5%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.24	0	11%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	0.9	0	0.30	0	8%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	1	0.33	0	11%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	0	0.26	0	3%	0
DET C. Fischer	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	0.8	0	0.26	0	5%	0
DET J. Holl	0.4	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.7 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.