Game Recap: DET 1, EDM 4, December 11, 2025

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Game Recap

DET1

FinalThu, Dec 11, 2025Every game that night

EDM4

EDM beat DET 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.41 expected goals to 3.27. C. McDavid led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). Z. Hyman had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Skinner stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	0	1	0	1
EDM	1	2	1	4

1st 14:25EDMZ. HymanPP0.19 xG
2nd 2:46EDMM. Ekholm0.04 xG
2nd 5:41DETS. Edvinsson0.20 xG
2nd 17:48EDMZ. Hyman0.25 xG
3rd 18:43EDMZ. HymanEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

DETEDM

28Shots on goal29

3.27Expected goals4.41

73Shot attempts52

215v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play1/2

9Hits25

11Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways13

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.27 xGEDM 4.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET28 on goal, 1 scored

EDM29 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Danielson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	10:41	1:40
E. Soderblom	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	10:07	0:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:19	2:20
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	19:36	2:20
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	19:15	2:21
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:50	1:37
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:44	1:40
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	17:33	2:23
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	14:55	1:39
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:26	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:10	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:55	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	21:38	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	22:49	2:19
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	20:12	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:02	1:41
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:54	0:00
T. Hamonic	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:36	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	28	25	3	.893	58:17	Loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. McDavid	C	0	4	4	4	0	1	+3	0	20:08	2:55
Z. Hyman	LW	3	0	3	7	0	0	+3	0	19:30	3:01
L. Draisaitl	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	21:00	2:58
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:18	2:39
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	7	1	0	0	18:22	0:00
M. Savoie	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	15:47	0:00
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	14:47	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:03	0:06
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	10:36	0:00
C. Lazar	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	9:46	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	-1	0	9:15	0:03
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	8:33	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	+1	0	21:57	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	2	20:29	0:22
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	24:34	3:01
A. Regula	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:36	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	16:45	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	16:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	28	27	1	.964	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1D. Larkin14:01L. Raymond16:16E. Finnie15:40

Line 2P. Kane13:27A. DeBrincat15:00A. Copp13:43

Line 3J. Compher13:20M. Rasmussen11:25J. Berggren11:10

Line 4E. Soderblom10:07M. Kasper10:55N. Danielson9:01

Pair 1B. Chiarot19:37A. Sandin-Pellikka18:21

Pair 2S. Edvinsson19:03M. Seider16:46

Pair 3T. Hamonic12:59A. Johansson15:29

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl17:31M. Savoie15:15V. Podkolzin15:20

Line 2Z. Hyman15:04C. McDavid15:50R. Nugent-Hopkins13:42

Line 3A. Henrique11:24M. Janmark11:51T. Frederic9:12

Line 4A. Mangiapane10:36D. Tomasek8:33C. Lazar8:56

Pair 1M. Ekholm18:06E. Bouchard19:27

Pair 2D. Nurse19:50A. Regula16:01

Pair 3B. Kulak14:38T. Emberson15:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 2.9, EDM 3.5	DET 1, EDM 4
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	DET 26.8, EDM 30.1	DET 28, EDM 29
Win chance	EDM 60%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.1	4	1.62	4	40%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.9	3	0.80	0	29%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.9	7	0.87	3	39%	3
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	1	1.06	0	19%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	1	1.43	2	46%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.7	3	0.86	0	31%	0
DET P. Kane	2.3	2	0.72	0	21%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	2	0.84	0	25%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.1	4	0.42	1	11%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.0	2	0.54	1	11%	1
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	1	0.86	1	25%	0
DET M. Seider	1.8	4	0.49	0	8%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.7	3	0.37	0	15%	0
EDM M. Savoie	1.6	2	0.39	0	19%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	1	0.44	0	17%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.5	1	0.43	0	20%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.3	1	0.27	0	13%	0
DET A. Copp	1.3	1	0.43	0	14%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.3	0	0.27	1	10%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.2	2	0.26	1	12%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	1	0.32	0	14%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	0	0.23	0	5%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	3	0.21	0	7%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.1	1	0.38	0	17%	0
DET J. Compher	1.1	0	0.35	0	14%	0
EDM D. Tomasek	1.0	3	0.24	0	12%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.0	0	0.29	0	13%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	0	0.22	0	12%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.0	1	0.30	1	8%	1
EDM A. Regula	0.9	0	0.09	0	5%	0
DET T. Hamonic	0.9	1	0.13	0	4%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.9	1	0.26	0	4%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.8	0	0.28	0	10%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.8	1	0.26	0	6%	0
EDM C. Lazar	0.7	0	0.20	0	9%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.6	0	0.12	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.