Game Recap: DET 4, EDM 3 (SO), October 26, 2026

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Game Recap

DET4

Final/SOMon, Oct 26, 2026Every game that night

EDM3

DET beat EDM 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.04 expected goals to 2.57. V. Arvidsson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. Nugent-Hopkins had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. M. Postava stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DET	0	1	2	1	4
EDM	1	0	2	0	3

1st 6:10EDMV. Podkolzin0.15 xG
2nd 8:35DETV. ArvidssonPP0.12 xG
3rd 4:18EDMI. HowardPP0.12 xG
3rd 4:48DETE. Finnie0.05 xG
3rd 16:32EDMC. Dach0.05 xG
3rd 18:43DETD. Larkin0.20 xG

Team Stats

DETEDM

29Shots on goal28

3.04Expected goals2.57

55Shot attempts58

215v5 shots on goal17

1/4Power play1/3

33Hits25

11Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways11

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.04 xGEDM 2.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET27 on goal, 3 scored

EDM27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	0	2	2	3	1	0	0	0	21:12	3:43
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	2	18:11	3:44
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	23:16	3:37
E. Finnie	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+2	0	20:34	2:38
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	2	3	0	+2	0	19:28	3:41
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	19:01	2:41
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:48	2:45
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:13	0:29
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	1	11	0	-1	2	15:18	2:38
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	8:19	0:27
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:11	0:31
C. Mazur	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	5:10	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	30:07	4:15
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	22:33	0:31
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	22:18	2:35
W. Wallinder	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:51	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	13:26	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Postava	28	25	3	.893	63:16	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Dach	C	1	1	2	2	2	1	+1	0	14:38	0:55
C. McDavid	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	26:27	5:01
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	25:10	5:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	22:22	5:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	4	21:37	3:32
K. Kapanen	RW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	19:02	0:55
I. Howard	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	8:43	0:40
O. Michaels	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	12:57	0:00
A. Formenton	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	11:35	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:32	0:00
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	8:25	1:43
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:14	0:37
R. Shea	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	-1	2	25:02	0:46
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	+2	0	31:41	5:09
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	2	2	5	-2	2	22:28	0:17
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	17:52	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:16	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	9:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Jarry	29	26	3	.897	65:00	OT loss
M. Tomkins	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1J. Compher15:08M. Rasmussen13:46A. Copp13:39

Line 2L. Raymond13:50M. Brandsegg-Nygård12:40D. Larkin11:52

Line 3E. Finnie12:47A. DeBrincat12:26V. Arvidsson11:14

Line 4N. Danielson7:40K. Kolesar6:07C. Mazur5:10

Pair 1B. Chiarot17:14M. Seider18:10

Pair 2J. Faulk16:54W. Wallinder17:09

Pair 3A. Johansson10:36A. Englund11:08

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl15:56V. Podkolzin15:17C. McDavid14:36

Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins15:15K. Kapanen15:15C. Dach12:51

Line 3A. Formenton8:21O. Michaels9:32M. Joseph8:44

Line 4T. Frederic6:37I. Howard8:03

Pair 1E. Bouchard20:05S. Mukhamadullin17:16

Pair 2C. Murphy17:10R. Shea18:55

Pair 3J. Walman9:15T. Emberson8:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

5 of 16 overs hit (31%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+106	-130	2	Under
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	+120	-140	2	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.5	+128	-160	3	Under
DET D. Larkin	2.5	-130	+110	4	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	-125	+100	2	Under
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+100	-120	3	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	+100	-111	4	Over
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	+110	-120	2	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-115	-115	1	Under
EDM J. Walman	1.5	+125	-140	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	1.5	-125	-105	1	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	-145	+120	1	Under
DET M. Seider	1.5	-145	+125	3	Over
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.5	-155	+130	5	Over
EDM R. Shea	1.5	+120	-160	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	-155	+140	1	Under

6 of 31 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+160	-180	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1500	-4000	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+700	-1400	1	Over
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+105	-135	0	Under
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+230	-320	1	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+360	-550	1	Over
EDM I. Howard	0.5	+700	-1000	1	Over
DET J. Compher	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
EDM J. Walman	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+100	-130	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+240	-320	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+500	-900	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+250	-370	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+270	-320	1	Over
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+240	-320	1	Over
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+1700	-10000	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under

9 of 31 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	+160	-180	1	Under
DET A. Copp	0.5	+280	-380	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+130	-145	1	Over
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+650	-1100	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+370	–	1	Over
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+145	-165	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-172	+145	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+240	-270	0	Under
EDM I. Howard	0.5	+425	–	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+260	-340	0	Under
EDM J. Walman	0.5	+340	–	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+280	-325	1	Over
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+750	–	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-190	+145	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+132	-150	2	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+260	-370	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+128	-135	1	Over
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+140	-155	1	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+235	-300	1	Over
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+550	–	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+500	–	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+180	-200	1	Over
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+215	-245	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+220	-265	0	Under

12 of 31 overs hit (39%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	-154	+125	1	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	1.5	+182	-195	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	1.5	+100	-110	1	Under
DET A. Copp	0.5	+180	-205	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-175	+145	1	Over
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
EDM C. Dach	0.5	+230	–	2	Over
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	-145	+120	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+135	-155	1	Over
EDM I. Howard	0.5	+255	–	1	Over
DET J. Compher	0.5	+230	-310	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+186	-230	0	Under
EDM J. Walman	0.5	+265	–	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+160	-185	1	Over
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+425	–	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-145	+125	2	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+145	-195	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+250	-360	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+195	-270	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	-113	+105	1	Over
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+320	–	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	-142	+125	1	Over
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+190	-240	1	Over
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+400	–	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+300	–	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-115	-105	2	Over
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	-115	-111	1	Over
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	-125	+105	0	Under

3 of 13 overs hit (23%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-140	+110	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+260	-275	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+105	-135	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-110	-120	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+210	-250	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+230	-280	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+300	-600	1	Over
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
EDM T. Jarry	25.5	-110	-115	26	Over
DET M. Postava	24.5	-110	-105	25	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
EDM C. Murphy	2.5	+120	-170	5	Over
DET M. Seider	2.5	-125	-110	2	Under
DET B. Chiarot	1.5	-140	+100	2	Over
EDM J. Walman	1.5	-110	-130	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	1.5	+105	-145	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamViktor Arvidsson DET Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20251 G, 1 A, 4 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.1, EDM 3.4	DET 4, EDM 3
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	DET 27.0, EDM 28.1	DET 29, EDM 28
Win chance	EDM 55%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.4	2	1.01	1	36%	0
EDM C. McDavid	3.3	2	1.67	1	40%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.9	3	1.47	1	44%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	2.8	4	0.86	2	30%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.8	4	0.87	1	33%	1
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	2	1.10	0	20%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.6	2	0.86	0	38%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.3	3	0.91	2	28%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	2.0	1	0.63	1	24%	1
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	2.0	1	0.49	0	17%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.9	5	0.83	1	26%	0
DET M. Seider	1.9	3	0.61	1	9%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.8	1	0.52	1	21%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.7	1	0.50	1	21%	1
EDM A. Formenton	1.6	1	0.36	0	16%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	1	0.51	0	17%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.5	1	0.42	0	9%	0
EDM J. Walman	1.4	0	0.30	0	8%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	4	0.35	0	16%	0
DET J. Compher	1.1	1	0.40	0	16%	0
EDM R. Shea	1.1	0	0.45	1	9%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.1	1	0.22	1	8%	1
DET B. Chiarot	1.1	1	0.20	0	6%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.1	2	0.26	0	7%	0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	3	0.25	0	7%	0
EDM C. Dach	1.0	2	0.23	2	9%	1
EDM M. Joseph	1.0	0	0.32	0	11%	0
EDM T. Frederic	1.0	0	0.18	0	10%	0
EDM O. Michaels	0.9	1	0.35	0	14%	0
DET W. Wallinder	0.9	1	0.22	0	5%	0
DET N. Danielson	0.8	0	0.20	0	7%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	0	0.21	0	4%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.6	0	0.17	0	8%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.6	2	0.14	0	2%	0
DET A. Englund	0.4	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.