Game Recap: DET 3, FLA 4, March 10, 2026

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Game Recap

DET3

FinalTue, Mar 10, 2026Every game that night

FLA4

FLA beat DET 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.33 expected goals to 3.21. C. Verhaeghe led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Tarasov stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	0	2	1	3
FLA	1	0	3	4

1st 9:48FLAV. Hinostroza0.04 xG
2nd 3:54DETP. Kane0.17 xG
2nd 12:59DETJ. Faulk0.02 xG
3rd 5:10FLAN. Mikkola0.03 xG
3rd 6:32DETM. Kasper0.20 xG
3rd 18:30FLAC. Verhaeghe0.05 xG
3rd 19:45FLAC. Verhaeghe0.07 xG

Team Stats

DETFLA

28Shots on goal28

3.21Expected goals2.33

55Shot attempts66

235v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play0/3

16Hits31

18Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways14

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.21 xGFLA 2.33 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET28 on goal, 3 scored

FLA28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	2	20:01	2:23
P. Kane	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	18:01	2:22
M. Kasper	C	1	0	1	4	4	1	0	0	16:26	0:33
E. Finnie	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:44	0:30
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	10:01	1:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:43	2:21
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:30	0:38
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:44	0:03
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	16:26	0:03
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:07	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:31	1:51
D. Shine	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:03	0:03
J. Faulk	D	1	1	2	1	1	1	-1	0	20:48	0:17
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	3	0	4	-1	0	25:40	2:41
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	21:20	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	3	5	3	+1	0	19:34	0:05
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:12	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	28	24	4	.857	59:45	Loss
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Verhaeghe	C	2	0	2	4	1	0	+1	0	17:09	2:08
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+2	2	15:52	3:55
V. Hinostroza	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	+2	0	9:41	0:00
S. Bennett	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	+2	2	16:52	3:08
J. Boqvist	C	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	0	13:19	1:03
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:32	3:38
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	0	0	3	6	0	0	0	17:40	2:51
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:21	1:49
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	2	6	1	-1	0	15:48	0:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	15:30	0:00
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:05	0:58
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+2	0	11:10	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	20:36	0:43
N. Mikkola	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:59	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	21:42	3:10
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	0	19:32	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	19:03	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	15:49	1:27

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	28	25	3	.893	59:20	Win
S. Bobrovsky	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1P. Kane15:14A. DeBrincat16:51A. Copp8:40

Line 2L. Raymond15:25E. Finnie13:48M. Kasper13:07

Line 3M. Appleton14:02M. Brandsegg-Nygård12:07M. Rasmussen13:49

Line 4J. Riemsdyk6:25D. Shine7:00

Pair 1M. Seider21:28S. Edvinsson19:48

Pair 2B. Chiarot15:46J. Faulk17:12

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker13:30A. Johansson12:38

FLA

Line 1T. Nosek14:33A. Greer14:44M. Samoskevich14:09

Line 2E. Rodrigues14:01A. Lundell13:15E. Luostarinen12:52

Line 3C. Verhaeghe13:18S. Bennett13:01M. Tkachuk11:17

Line 4L. Kunin9:11J. Boqvist10:22V. Hinostroza9:41

Pair 1D. Kulikov18:06D. Sebrango19:29

Pair 2A. Ekblad15:18G. Forsling17:05

Pair 3N. Mikkola16:21U. Balinskis13:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDaniil Tarasov DET Faces FLA, his team until Apr 202625 saves on 28, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 2.9, FLA 3.2	DET 3, FLA 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	DET 25.6, FLA 29.1	DET 28, FLA 28
Win chance	FLA 55%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.1	3	0.89	1	33%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.9	4	0.81	1	32%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.9	4	1.06	2	33%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.3	0	0.50	0	19%	0
DET P. Kane	2.3	3	0.78	1	23%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.3	4	0.67	2	26%	2
FLA A. Lundell	2.2	1	0.63	0	21%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.1	1	0.91	0	26%	0
DET M. Seider	2.1	3	0.66	1	10%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.8	1	0.50	2	10%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.7	3	0.29	0	12%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.7	4	0.38	1	16%	1
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	0	0.54	0	11%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.6	3	0.37	1	10%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	1	0.53	1	16%	0
FLA U. Balinskis	1.4	3	0.31	0	8%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.3	1	0.22	0	10%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	3	0.21	0	6%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	1	0.39	0	13%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.2	1	0.27	1	13%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	2	0.38	0	10%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.2	1	0.22	1	6%	1
FLA A. Greer	1.1	2	0.27	0	12%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.1	1	0.37	0	14%	0
DET J. Compher	1.0	1	0.35	0	14%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.0	1	0.27	0	10%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
FLA T. Nosek	0.9	0	0.19	0	6%	0
FLA V. Hinostroza	0.9	1	0.19	2	8%	1
DET A. Johansson	0.9	0	0.18	0	5%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.9	1	0.17	0	4%	0
FLA L. Kunin	0.8	0	0.13	0	8%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	0.7	1	0.18	1	9%	0
FLA D. Sebrango	0.7	0	0.10	0	2%	0
DET D. Shine	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.