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Game Recap
DET1
FLA8
FLA beat DET 8-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.78 expected goals to 2.22. L. Kunin led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Kunin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Tarasov stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| FLA | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
- 1st 4:57FLAV. Hinostroza0.01 xG
- 2nd 5:37FLAL. Kunin0.13 xG
- 2nd 8:56FLAA. GreerPP0.22 xG
- 2nd 9:39FLAM. Benning0.05 xG
- 2nd 12:41FLAM. Benning0.09 xG
- 2nd 16:12DETJ. Faulk0.10 xG
- 3rd 8:56FLAC. Schwindt0.10 xG
- 3rd 9:37FLAC. Reinhardt0.52 xG
- 3rd 18:12FLAL. Kunin0.14 xG
Team Stats
DETFLA
26Shots on goal28
2.22Expected goals3.78
58Shot attempts51
205v5 shots on goal26
0/3Power play1/1
17Hits10
9Blocked shots17
2Penalty minutes6
20Giveaways12
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.22 xGFLA 3.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:38 | 3:12 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:41 | 2:05 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:09 | 3:03 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:14 | 2:38 |
| D. Perron | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:01 | 1:59 |
| M. Brandsegg-Nygård | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:46 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:06 | 0:45 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:57 | 3:05 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:45 | 1:18 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:55 |
| C. Mazur | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:18 |
| J. Faulk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:58 | 2:21 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:22 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:22 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 16:51 | 3:18 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:06 | 2:33 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Kunin | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| W. Skoog | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Tkachuk | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Greer | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:23 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:23 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:23 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 13:38 | 0:23 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Foote | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Benning | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:34 | 0:00 |
| M. Alscher | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:00 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 20:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Hovorka | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:08 | 0:00 |
| L. Jansson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:23 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1L. Raymond12:52E. Finnie14:04C. Mazur12:53
Line 2J. Riemsdyk14:36M. Kasper16:36M. Brandsegg-Nygård14:36
Line 3P. Kane15:06A. DeBrincat15:26A. Copp13:55
Line 4D. Perron15:02J. Compher15:21
Pair 1B. Chiarot18:46J. Faulk17:37
Pair 2S. Edvinsson14:06M. Seider13:33
Pair 3T. Hamonic16:13A. Johansson14:50
FLA
Line 1L. Kunin16:27C. Reinhardt14:58M. Tkachuk13:19
Line 2E. Luostarinen12:57W. Skoog13:06V. Hinostroza13:15
Line 3M. Samoskevich14:03C. Schwindt12:41N. Gregor11:35
Line 4A. Greer14:00J. Boqvist12:53N. Foote11:32
Pair 1T. Bjornfot18:21L. Jansson15:51
Pair 2M. Benning20:33D. Sebrango19:00
Pair 3M. Alscher17:29M. Hovorka16:05
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.1, FLA 3.1 | DET 1, FLA 8 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.9, FLA 27.6 | DET 26, FLA 28 |
| Win chance | FLA 51% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.0 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| FLA M. Tkachuk | 2.8 | 0 | 1.10 | 2 | 34% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.3 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.2 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.2 | 0 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 4 | 0.85 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET J. Faulk | 1.7 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 1.5 | 2 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DET D. Perron | 1.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.4 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA V. Hinostroza | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA N. Foote | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård | 1.1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| FLA C. Reinhardt | 1.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 1.1 | 5 | 0.21 | 3 | 11% | 2 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA M. Benning | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 2 | 5% | 2 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 0.9 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET C. Mazur | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.