Game Recap: DET 5, FLA 3, November 2, 2026

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Game Recap

DET5

FinalMon, Nov 2, 2026Every game that night

FLA3

DET beat FLA 5-3, with the chances close: 3.23 expected goals to 3.07. M. Brandsegg-Nygård led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Rasmussen had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Tarasov stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	1	1	3	5
FLA	1	1	1	3

1st 5:26DETC. Mazur0.03 xG
1st 14:19FLAS. Reinhart0.13 xG
2nd 1:26DETA. DeBrincat0.17 xG
2nd 15:25FLAA. EkbladSH0.01 xG
3rd 2:08DETJ. FaulkPP0.05 xG
3rd 2:53DETM. Brandsegg-Nygård0.42 xG
3rd 16:40FLAS. Bennett0.17 xG
3rd 19:57DETE. FinnieEN0.56 xG

Team Stats

DETFLA

29Shots on goal26

3.23Expected goals3.07

45Shot attempts69

195v5 shots on goal16

1/3Power play0/2

19Hits41

17Blocked shots8

4Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways13

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.23 xGFLA 3.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET29 on goal, 5 scored

FLA26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	1	1	2	2	7	0	+1	2	16:52	2:03
A. Copp	C	0	2	2	0	1	1	+1	0	16:49	2:07
E. Finnie	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	18:40	3:24
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	18:39	3:36
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:13	3:37
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	0	18:11	3:38
C. Mazur	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	7:26	0:03
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	19:09	2:14
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	5	1	4	-1	0	15:13	2:06
J. Leonard	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	12:17	0:00
S. Dries	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	+2	0	11:44	0:03
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	8:06	0:03
M. Seider	D	0	2	2	2	1	1	+1	0	27:28	3:05
J. Faulk	D	1	1	2	1	1	1	-1	0	20:28	2:42
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	20:38	0:14
W. Wallinder	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	17:08	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	+2	0	16:43	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	26	23	3	.885	60:00	Win
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	1	3	0	-1	0	20:31	3:16
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	3	3	0	+1	0	20:13	2:50
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	2	7	0	-1	0	19:20	2:33
S. Bennett	C	1	0	1	5	2	0	0	0	18:59	1:13
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	18:52	2:32
L. Eller	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	17:21	0:44
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	13:35	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	6:25	0:00
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	19:28	1:27
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	18:46	1:10
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	4:32	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	4:28	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	1	0	1	3	2	1	-1	0	20:22	1:21
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	27:23	2:39
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	21:34	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	20:02	0:15
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	2	12:43	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	12:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Markstrom	28	24	4	.857	57:33	Loss
A. Schmid	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1V. Arvidsson14:33A. DeBrincat14:54E. Finnie13:21

Line 2L. Raymond13:31M. Brandsegg-Nygård14:13A. Copp13:04

Line 3J. Compher13:22J. Leonard11:55M. Rasmussen11:30

Line 4S. Dries8:00C. Mazur7:23K. Kolesar7:19

Pair 1B. Chiarot18:26M. Seider20:45

Pair 2J. Faulk14:57W. Wallinder14:39

Pair 3A. Englund14:42A. Johansson12:16

FLA

Line 1L. Eller15:15E. Luostarinen14:29A. Lundell14:42

Line 2S. Bennett15:25M. Tkachuk14:30B. Tkachuk14:20

Line 3C. Verhaeghe13:53S. Vilmanis13:35S. Reinhart13:44

Line 4B. Imama4:28C. Schwindt4:32G. Hathaway4:05

Pair 1S. Jones19:52N. Mikkola19:51

Pair 2G. Forsling16:27A. Ekblad15:40

Pair 3D. Kulikov11:59R. Gudas12:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+132	-170	4	Over
FLA B. Tkachuk	2.5	-160	+134	2	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	+115	-145	2	Under
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+121	-150	2	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.5	+130	-140	1	Under
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	+140	-170	5	Over
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	+100	-120	3	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	+108	-115	5	Over
DET A. Copp	1.5	-105	-140	0	Under
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	+105	-155	3	Over
FLA A. Lundell	1.5	-160	+143	1	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-140	+116	2	Over
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	+115	-135	1	Under
DET J. Faulk	1.5	+111	-135	1	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	-106	-115	2	Over
DET M. Seider	1.5	-160	+140	2	Over
FLA S. Jones	1.5	-170	+135	0	Under

8 of 34 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+430	-800	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+195	-240	1	Over
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+900	-2000	1	Over
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+320	-390	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+2900	-4000	0	Under
FLA B. Imama	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+145	-180	0	Under
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+1100	-4000	1	Over
FLA C. Schwindt	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+220	-250	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+2100	-5000	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+310	-370	1	Over
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+430	-700	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+1200	-4000	0	Under
FLA G. Hathaway	0.5	+1100	-1200	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+900	-1600	1	Over
DET J. Leonard	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+1300	-4000	0	Under
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+575	-700	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+260	-320	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+430	-650	1	Over
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+600	-1200	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+205	-250	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+1700	-2000	0	Under
FLA R. Gudas	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+260	-330	1	Over
DET S. Dries	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+160	-220	1	Over
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.5	+600	–	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+2200	-10000	0	Under

10 of 19 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+260	-295	2	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+134	-159	0	Under
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+210	-270	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+145	-160	1	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+145	-165	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+190	-220	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+270	-330	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+240	-300	1	Over
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+215	-295	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+140	-165	1	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+220	-275	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+130	-155	2	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-110	+100	1	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+185	-235	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+100	-118	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+120	-145	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+200	-235	1	Over

15 of 19 overs hit (79%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+135	-170	2	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-160	+140	1	Over
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+165	-190	1	Over
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+118	-140	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	-190	+165	1	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	-145	+130	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+102	-111	1	Over
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+160	-185	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+220	-280	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+180	-210	2	Over
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+145	-170	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-140	+115	1	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+135	-140	2	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+100	-118	2	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-220	+174	1	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	-105	-111	1	Over
FLA S. Jones	0.5	-132	+109	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	-200	+160	1	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-111	+105	1	Over

3 of 17 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+220	-290	0	Under
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+210	-275	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+210	-295	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+280	-375	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+270	-350	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+190	-185	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+220	-240	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+200	-275	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+310	-350	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
DET D. Tarasov	25.5	+100	-122	23	Under
FLA J. Markstrom	23.5	+100	-115	24	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DET M. Seider	2.5	+105	-150	1	Under
DET B. Chiarot	1.5	-140	+100	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	1.5	-105	-135	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDaniil Tarasov DET Faces FLA, his team until Apr 202623 saves on 26, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.0, FLA 3.2	DET 5, FLA 3
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	DET 26.3, FLA 27.2	DET 29, FLA 26
Win chance	FLA 53%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.1	2	0.82	1	32%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	4	0.96	1	36%	1
DET V. Arvidsson	2.7	5	0.86	1	32%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.4	3	0.92	1	37%	1
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.4	2	0.83	1	31%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.4	1	1.04	1	30%	0
FLA S. Bennett	2.3	5	0.68	1	28%	1
DET M. Seider	2.1	2	0.63	2	9%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.1	2	0.84	1	26%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.0	1	0.59	0	21%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.8	0	0.54	0	10%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.7	2	0.54	1	23%	1
DET J. Faulk	1.7	1	0.44	2	9%	1
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.7	2	0.47	2	19%	1
FLA S. Vilmanis	1.4	1	0.37	1	18%	0
DET A. Copp	1.4	0	0.51	2	18%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.4	1	0.30	0	7%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.4	1	0.47	0	16%	0
FLA L. Eller	1.3	3	0.38	1	15%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.3	3	0.40	1	8%	1
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	5	0.35	0	15%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	1	0.19	0	5%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	1	0.22	0	6%	0
DET W. Wallinder	1.1	0	0.26	0	4%	0
DET J. Compher	1.0	2	0.35	0	13%	0
DET S. Dries	1.0	1	0.18	0	11%	0
DET J. Leonard	1.0	1	0.18	0	9%	0
DET A. Johansson	1.0	0	0.20	0	4%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.8	1	0.23	0	10%	0
FLA R. Gudas	0.8	0	0.16	0	3%	0
DET C. Mazur	0.7	1	0.17	1	8%	1
FLA G. Hathaway	0.7	0	0.17	1	9%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.7	1	0.15	0	4%	0
FLA B. Imama	0.6	0	0.07	0	5%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.6	0	0.17	0	8%	0
DET A. Englund	0.5	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.