Game Recap: DET 4, FLA 5, November 12, 2026

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Game Recap

DET4

FinalThu, Nov 12, 2026Every game that night

FLA5

FLA beat DET 5-4, with the chances close: 3.35 expected goals to 2.69. C. Verhaeghe led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). A. Schmid stopped 24 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	2	2	0	4
FLA	1	1	3	5

1st 3:52FLAS. Reinhart0.05 xG
1st 4:07DETJ. Compher0.15 xG
1st 13:14DETA. Englund0.02 xG
2nd 0:17DETL. Raymond0.04 xG
2nd 12:08DETM. Kasper0.06 xG
2nd 19:42FLAG. Forsling0.06 xG
3rd 2:32FLAA. Lundell0.24 xG
3rd 16:29FLAL. Eller0.12 xG
3rd 17:20FLAA. Lundell0.28 xG

Team Stats

DETFLA

28Shots on goal29

2.69Expected goals3.35

45Shot attempts63

235v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play0/2

13Hits36

18Blocked shots7

9Penalty minutes9

18Giveaways10

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.69 xGFLA 3.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET27 on goal, 4 scored

FLA29 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Copp	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:11	1:25
L. Raymond	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:26	2:56
J. Compher	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	14:48	0:59
M. Kasper	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	14:12	0:47
C. Mazur	LW	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	13:38	0:33
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	21:01	2:56
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5	18:19	1:44
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:09	3:11
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	2	14:52	0:50
S. Dries	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:26	0:01
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:12	0:03
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:05	0:03
M. Seider	D	0	2	2	2	0	2	0	0	26:31	3:04
W. Wallinder	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	20:17	0:00
A. Englund	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	-1	0	14:21	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	3	2	5	-1	0	22:23	0:58
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	0	19:49	0:30
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	12:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	29	24	5	.828	57:17	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Verhaeghe	C	0	3	3	3	0	0	+3	0	19:15	3:24
A. Lundell	C	2	0	2	3	3	0	0	0	15:50	1:39
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+3	0	23:00	3:57
L. Eller	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	+4	0	19:51	0:19
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	17:01	3:39
B. Tkachuk	LW	0	1	1	4	4	0	0	0	15:47	2:17
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	15:49	0:03
S. Vilmanis	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	13:02	0:03
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	7	12:56	0:00
C. Schwindt	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	9:12	0:00
B. Imama	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:54	0:00
G. Hathaway	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	2	8:39	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	0	23:01	0:54
G. Forsling	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	22:41	0:32
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	22:32	3:13
N. Mikkola	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	19:22	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:21	0:00
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	13:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Schmid	28	24	4	.857	60:00	Win
J. Markstrom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1L. Raymond13:47M. Brandsegg-Nygård13:55A. Copp14:24

Line 2A. DeBrincat13:57E. Finnie13:39M. Kasper12:51

Line 3J. Compher12:49C. Mazur13:03V. Arvidsson12:31

Line 4M. Appleton8:30S. Dries8:46K. Kolesar8:20

Pair 1W. Wallinder19:02M. Seider19:32

Pair 2B. Chiarot17:14J. Faulk18:35

Pair 3A. Englund13:27A. Johansson12:03

FLA

Line 1C. Verhaeghe15:07S. Reinhart14:49L. Eller15:17

Line 2M. Tkachuk13:07B. Tkachuk13:14S. Bennett12:43

Line 3E. Luostarinen11:57S. Vilmanis12:59A. Lundell11:56

Line 4B. Imama8:54C. Schwindt9:09G. Hathaway8:36

Pair 1A. Ekblad18:15G. Forsling18:12

Pair 2S. Jones16:34N. Mikkola16:31

Pair 3D. Kulikov15:20R. Gudas13:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 16 overs hit (63%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+122	-140	2	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.5	+120	-130	4	Over
FLA A. Lundell	2.5	+142	-170	3	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.5	+101	-125	3	Over
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+130	-145	3	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.5	-110	-110	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	+135	-145	1	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	+100	-115	4	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	+100	-110	1	Under
DET A. Copp	1.5	+115	-148	1	Under
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	+115	-130	2	Over
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-140	+120	3	Over
DET J. Faulk	1.5	+121	-135	3	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	-105	-115	1	Under
DET M. Seider	1.5	-160	+140	2	Over
FLA S. Jones	1.5	-160	+130	2	Over

8 of 36 overs hit (22%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+525	-600	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+200	-210	0	Under
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+850	-2000	0	Under
DET A. Englund	0.5	+2200	-5000	1	Over
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1550	-3500	0	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+360	-650	2	Over
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
FLA B. Imama	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+160	-220	0	Under
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
FLA C. Schwindt	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+220	-240	0	Under
FLA D. Kulikov	0.5	+1900	-4000	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+1000	-2000	1	Over
FLA G. Hathaway	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+575	-900	1	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+750	-2000	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under
FLA L. Eller	0.5	+500	-700	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+250	-340	1	Over
DET M. Appleton	0.5	+1000	-1200	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
DET M. Kasper	0.5	+550	-800	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+775	-1000	0	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+210	-250	0	Under
FLA N. Mikkola	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
FLA R. Gudas	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+255	-285	0	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+155	-210	1	Over
FLA S. Vilmanis	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+240	-350	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under

7 of 17 overs hit (41%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+230	-295	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+240	-325	1	Over
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+240	-325	0	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+140	-157	1	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+140	-175	3	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+122	-152	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+320	-325	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+124	-152	2	Over
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	-128	+115	1	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+200	-210	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+108	-130	1	Over
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+140	-160	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+190	-230	0	Under

10 of 18 overs hit (56%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
FLA M. Tkachuk	1.5	+186	-210	1	Under
DET A. Copp	0.5	+135	-170	1	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-140	+115	0	Under
FLA A. Ekblad	0.5	+175	-220	1	Over
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+140	-150	2	Over
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	-165	+150	1	Over
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	-155	+125	3	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+100	-122	0	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+135	-185	0	Under
FLA G. Forsling	0.5	+190	-225	1	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+170	-218	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-150	+125	1	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+185	-200	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	-105	-115	2	Over
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	-111	-105	0	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	-120	+100	1	Over
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	-180	+150	1	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-110	+105	0	Under

0 of 18 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+230	-250	Under
FLA A. Lundell	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
FLA B. Tkachuk	0.5	+210	-275	Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe	0.5	+250	-260	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+310	-450	Under
FLA E. Luostarinen	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+210	-260	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DET M. Kasper	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+230	-280	Under
FLA M. Tkachuk	0.5	+155	-185	Under
FLA S. Bennett	0.5	+380	-900	Under
FLA S. Jones	0.5	+200	-225	Under
FLA S. Reinhart	0.5	+230	-250	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+280	-400	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
DET J. Gibson	24.5	-104	-110	24	Under
FLA A. Schmid	23.5	-104	-122	24	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DET M. Seider	2.5	+105	-145	2	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneDmitry Kulikov FLA 1 assist from 200Not yet: 2 SOG
MilestoneMatthew Tkachuk FLA 3 points from 700Not yet: 1 A, 0 SOG
MilestoneSam Reinhart FLA 2 points from 700Not yet: 1 G, 4 SOG
Old teamDaniil Tarasov DET Faces FLA, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.0, FLA 3.3	DET 4, FLA 5
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	DET 26.6, FLA 28.0	DET 28, FLA 29
Win chance	FLA 54%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA B. Tkachuk	3.3	4	0.87	1	33%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	2	0.95	0	35%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	2.6	1	0.83	0	31%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	2.5	4	0.98	1	38%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.4	1	0.70	0	29%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.4	3	0.86	3	32%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.4	0	1.09	1	30%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.2	3	0.86	1	26%	1
DET M. Seider	2.1	2	0.61	2	9%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.0	3	0.58	2	21%	2
DET E. Finnie	1.8	3	0.59	0	25%	0
FLA S. Jones	1.8	2	0.59	1	12%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.7	3	0.46	0	10%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.6	2	0.35	1	16%	1
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.6	1	0.45	0	19%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	1	0.54	1	18%	0
FLA L. Eller	1.5	1	0.42	1	16%	1
FLA G. Forsling	1.4	2	0.31	1	7%	1
FLA A. Ekblad	1.4	2	0.41	1	8%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	1	0.44	0	15%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	2	0.19	0	5%	0
DET W. Wallinder	1.2	2	0.29	1	5%	0
DET J. Compher	1.1	2	0.39	1	14%	1
FLA S. Vilmanis	1.1	0	0.35	0	14%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.0	1	0.21	1	6%	0
DET S. Dries	1.0	0	0.19	0	11%	0
DET C. Mazur	1.0	0	0.26	1	11%	0
DET A. Johansson	1.0	2	0.18	0	3%	0
FLA R. Gudas	0.8	2	0.16	0	3%	0
DET M. Appleton	0.8	1	0.20	0	8%	0
FLA C. Schwindt	0.7	1	0.19	0	9%	0
FLA G. Hathaway	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0
FLA B. Imama	0.7	0	0.07	0	5%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.7	2	0.15	0	4%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	0	0.15	0	7%	0
DET A. Englund	0.5	1	0.10	1	2%	1

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.