Game Recap: DET 1, LAK 4, November 16, 2024

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Game Recap

DET1

FinalSat, Nov 16, 2024Every game that night

LAK4

LAK beat DET 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.41 expected goals to 1.46. LAK outshot DET 41 to 18. A. Kempe led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Laferriere had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. D. Rittich stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	0	0	1	1
LAK	2	0	2	4

1st 18:05LAKM. Anderson0.16 xG
1st 18:27LAKT. Jeannot0.10 xG
3rd 0:15LAKA. Kempe0.15 xG
3rd 18:33DETD. Larkin0.06 xG
3rd 19:11LAKA. KempeEN0.87 xG

Team Stats

DETLAK

18Shots on goal41

1.46Expected goals5.41

57Shot attempts76

165v5 shots on goal37

0/0Power play0/1

22Hits26

11Blocked shots31

2Penalty minutes0

24Giveaways19

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 1.46 xGLAK 5.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET18 on goal, 1 scored

LAK41 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-2	0	16:45	0:00
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	-2	0	16:45	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	14:14	0:00
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:56	0:00
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	16:10	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:21	0:00
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:52	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	14:34	0:00
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:10	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:59	0:00
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:26	0:00
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:02	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	25:29	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	22:40	0:00
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	22:09	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:36	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	14:18	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	13:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	40	37	3	.925	58:37	Loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	2	0	2	3	1	1	+2	15:35	1:04
T. Lewis	C	0	2	2	0	3	0	+2	12:37	0:00
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	17:47	0:51
W. Foegele	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	17:14	0:55
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	16:42	1:06
P. Danault	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	16:33	0:54
T. Jeannot	LW	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	12:35	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	1	1	0	3	4	0	12:15	0:00
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	17:15	1:09
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:13	1:05
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	17:01	1:09
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	9:24	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	22:19	0:00
M. Anderson	D	1	0	1	4	0	8	+1	22:14	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	+1	20:28	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	4	3	1	+2	19:49	0:51
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	5	0	3	0	18:09	0:56
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	1	2	4	+1	14:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	18	17	1	.944	60:00	Win
E. Portillo	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 2.7, LAK 3.6	DET 1, LAK 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	DET 24.3, LAK 32.5	DET 18, LAK 41
Win chance	LAK 64%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	3.3	3	1.01	2	38%	2
LAK K. Fiala	2.8	2	0.95	0	31%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.7	4	0.68	1	25%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.6	2	0.79	1	31%	1
LAK W. Foegele	2.5	1	0.55	1	23%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.4	2	0.69	1	26%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.4	5	0.67	0	11%	0
DET P. Kane	2.3	0	0.70	0	22%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.2	5	0.54	0	24%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.0	1	0.64	0	18%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.8	3	0.62	1	22%	0
DET L. Raymond	1.8	4	0.73	0	23%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.6	2	0.49	1	20%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	2	0.94	1	27%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.5	0	0.25	2	12%	0
DET M. Seider	1.5	2	0.47	0	7%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.5	2	0.41	1	9%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.5	0	0.33	0	16%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.4	4	0.39	0	6%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.3	4	0.33	1	7%	1
DET M. Kasper	1.3	1	0.27	0	13%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.2	1	0.21	0	5%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	3	0.28	0	8%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.2	0	0.30	0	10%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	0	0.42	0	17%	0
DET T. Motte	1.1	1	0.15	0	9%	0
DET A. Copp	1.0	0	0.36	0	14%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.0	2	0.30	0	5%	0
DET J. Petry	1.0	0	0.30	0	5%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.9	1	0.10	0	3%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.8	1	0.21	1	10%	1
DET C. Fischer	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.8	0	0.20	0	9%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	0	0.16	0	2%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.3	1	0.05	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.