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Game Recap
DET4
LAK3
DET beat LAK 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.64 expected goals to 4.51. LAK outshot DET 39 to 27. C. Perry led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Fiala had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. C. Talbot stopped 36 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 2nd 12:39LAKA. LaferriereSH0.08 xG
- 2nd 13:22DETA. DeBrincatPP0.07 xG
- 2nd 15:46DETM. KasperPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 14:45DETM. Kasper0.09 xG
- 3rd 17:47LAKC. Perry0.47 xG
- 3rd 18:27LAKC. Perry0.23 xG
Team Stats
DETLAK
27Shots on goal39
2.64Expected goals4.51
56Shot attempts84
245v5 shots on goal21
2/3Power play0/4
11Hits17
18Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes6
17Giveaways14
3Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.64 xGLAK 4.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:33 | 3:04 |
| M. Kasper | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 1:35 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:21 | 2:56 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:51 | 0:43 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 0:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:07 | 2:51 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:54 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 2:54 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 1:37 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:37 | 1:21 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 28:28 | 3:20 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:54 | 1:11 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 24:33 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:28 | 0:03 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:06 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:43 | 2:55 |
| C. Perry | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:40 | 3:46 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:25 | 5:49 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 24:33 | 6:28 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:53 | 6:10 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:31 | 1:33 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 5:05 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:18 | 0:52 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:49 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 27:08 | 2:01 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:14 | 2:31 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:35 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 63:36 | OT loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1D. Larkin14:44L. Raymond14:22E. Finnie14:30
Line 2A. Copp14:18J. Compher14:17J. Berggren13:21
Line 3A. DeBrincat10:39M. Kasper10:47M. Appleton9:36
Line 4J. Riemsdyk8:08M. Rasmussen8:27E. Soderblom10:22
Pair 1M. Seider20:35S. Edvinsson18:09
Pair 2B. Chiarot19:46A. Sandin-Pellikka15:52
Pair 3T. Hamonic11:08A. Johansson12:14
LAK
Line 1K. Fiala15:48Q. Byfield14:27C. Perry12:48
Line 2P. Danault14:57A. Laferriere14:22J. Armia14:04
Line 3A. Kopitar14:50A. Kempe16:34A. Kuzmenko11:19
Line 4A. Turcotte11:02J. Malott4:41
Pair 1J. Edmundson14:38B. Clarke16:50
Pair 2D. Doughty21:07B. Dumoulin14:32
Pair 3M. Anderson13:41C. Ceci12:22
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.0, LAK 3.2 | DET 4, LAK 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.8, LAK 28.0 | DET 27, LAK 39 |
| Win chance | LAK 54% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.0 | 6 | 1.01 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.8 | 7 | 0.84 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 1 | 0.70 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.6 | 0 | 0.84 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.2 | 2 | 0.80 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.2 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 3 | 0.44 | 2 | 19% | 2 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.8 | 3 | 0.70 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.7 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK C. Perry | 1.6 | 5 | 0.50 | 2 | 24% | 2 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.5 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.5 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.4 | 0 | 0.55 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.4 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 1.2 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.1 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 5 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.