Game Recap: DET 3, MIN 4 (OT), January 22, 2026

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Game Recap

DET3

Final/OTThu, Jan 22, 2026Every game that night

MIN4

MIN beat DET 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.41 expected goals to 2.55. K. Kaprizov led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Kaprizov had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.6. F. Gustavsson stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DET	1	1	1	0	3
MIN	1	0	2	1	4

1st 4:39DETL. RaymondPP0.05 xG
1st 17:19MINK. KaprizovPP0.13 xG
2nd 16:22DETL. Raymond0.24 xG
3rd 0:37MINM. Zuccarello0.24 xG
3rd 5:36DETJ. van Riemsdyk0.15 xG
3rd 6:11MINM. Zuccarello0.24 xG
OT 0:45MINK. Kaprizov0.08 xG

Team Stats

DETMIN

34Shots on goal39

2.55Expected goals3.41

69Shot attempts72

325v5 shots on goal29

1/2Power play1/4

15Hits18

18Blocked shots20

8Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways15

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.55 xGMIN 3.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET34 on goal, 3 scored

MIN39 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	0	18:10	1:37
D. Larkin	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	+1	0	23:32	1:37
M. Kasper	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	17:29	1:01
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	9:16	1:37
E. Finnie	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	7:29	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	20:02	1:01
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-3	0	17:57	1:37
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	15:53	1:01
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	12:51	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:30	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	11:27	1:01
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	10:12	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	-2	0	27:38	1:37
T. Hamonic	D	0	1	1	0	2	4	0	4	17:04	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	4	2	3	+1	0	21:56	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	20:11	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	19:14	0:01
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	12:31	1:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	39	35	4	.897	60:45	OT loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	2	1	3	8	0	0	+3	0	25:38	6:04
M. Zuccarello	RW	2	1	3	2	0	0	+2	0	23:01	5:19
R. Hartman	RW	0	1	1	3	1	5	+3	0	22:25	4:29
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	5	3	1	-1	2	19:48	2:26
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:59	4:27
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:34	0:49
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:13	2:24
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	2	10:54	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:31	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:16	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	7:36	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7:16	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	3	3	3	0	0	+2	0	29:55	5:58
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	+1	0	25:24	0:55
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	21:15	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	20:38	1:34
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	0	10:10	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:04	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	34	31	3	.912	60:45	Win
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1D. Larkin18:04L. Raymond16:03M. Kasper15:39

Line 2A. Copp15:48A. DeBrincat16:05P. Kane14:52

Line 3M. Appleton11:09E. Soderblom10:12M. Rasmussen9:51

Line 4J. Riemsdyk7:39J. Compher8:09E. Finnie7:29

Pair 1T. Hamonic15:17A. Johansson16:54

Pair 2J. Bernard-Docker17:36M. Seider21:47

Pair 3B. Chiarot18:20A. Sandin-Pellikka11:31

MIN

Line 1R. Hartman17:51K. Kaprizov18:49M. Zuccarello17:42

Line 2M. Johansson15:44J. Ek16:04V. Tarasenko13:32

Line 3M. Foligno10:12V. Hinostroza9:16D. Yurov10:30

Line 4T. Pitlick7:36Y. Trenin7:33N. Sturm6:37

Pair 1Q. Hughes23:12B. Faber23:10

Pair 2J. Spurgeon17:47J. Middleton19:55

Pair 3D. Hunt8:51D.Jiricek8:04

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 2.9, MIN 3.5	DET 3, MIN 4
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	DET 27.5, MIN 30.1	DET 34, MIN 39
Win chance	MIN 60%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.6	8	1.35	3	47%	2
DET A. DeBrincat	3.1	3	0.76	0	30%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.9	3	1.17	3	16%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.7	5	0.70	0	26%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.6	3	0.71	1	29%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.5	3	0.72	1	28%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.4	2	0.97	3	26%	2
DET P. Kane	2.3	3	0.64	0	20%	0
DET M. Seider	2.1	3	0.51	1	8%	0
MIN B. Faber	2.0	4	0.48	1	12%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	3	0.60	0	24%	0
DET L. Raymond	1.8	3	0.70	2	21%	2
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.6	1	0.47	1	18%	1
DET A. Copp	1.6	2	0.51	0	16%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.6	0	0.29	1	14%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	2	0.53	0	18%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.4	0	0.49	0	17%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	4	0.19	0	6%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	0	0.35	0	9%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.3	2	0.37	0	18%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	0	0.28	0	13%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	1	0.28	0	13%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.2	3	0.23	0	11%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.2	2	0.23	1	11%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.1	1	0.26	0	11%	0
DET T. Hamonic	1.1	0	0.13	1	4%	0
DET J. Compher	1.1	0	0.33	0	13%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.1	1	0.25	0	10%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	1	0.26	0	6%	0
MIN N. Sturm	1.0	1	0.26	0	12%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.8	3	0.22	0	6%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.8	0	0.13	0	6%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	2	0.14	0	4%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.7	1	0.14	0	3%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	3	0.15	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.