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Game Recap
DET1
FinalSat, Dec 21, 2024Every game that night
MTL5

MTL beat DET 5-1, with the chances close: 2.66 expected goals to 2.26. N. Suzuki led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). P. Laine had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. S. Montembeault stopped 20 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
DET1001
MTL3205
  1. 1st 6:41DETJ. Veleno0.10 xG
  2. 1st 14:14MTLJ. Slafkovský0.07 xG
  3. 1st 15:26MTLJ. Evans0.12 xG
  4. 1st 19:21MTLP. LainePP0.08 xG
  5. 2nd 2:40MTLE. Heineman0.29 xG
  6. 2nd 13:03MTLB. Gallagher0.04 xG

Team Stats

DETMTL
21Shots on goal24
2.26Expected goals2.66
50Shot attempts59
155v5 shots on goal16
0/4Power play1/5
20Hits19
17Blocked shots12
10Penalty minutes8
22Giveaways17
3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.26 xGMTL 2.66 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdDET goal, 6:41MTL goal, 14:14MTL goal, 15:26MTL goal, 19:21MTL goal, 2:40MTL goal, 13:03

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET20 on goal, 1 scored
MTL24 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. VelenoC1012100013:260:00
J. BerggrenRW0111000012:590:00
J. CompherLW000000-1017:404:06
P. KaneRW000200-1015:323:29
M. KasperC000231-1015:284:01
L. RaymondLW0001300015:223:28
D. LarkinC0000300215:173:29
M. RasmussenC000210-1415:143:55
A. CoppC000001-1014:480:01
V. TarasenkoRW000230-1014:424:01
A. DeBrincatRW000312-1014:113:28
T. MotteC000100-2013:460:00
M. SeiderD0111370026:383:25
J. HollD000022-2019:330:00
J. PetryD000100-1218:530:00
E. GustafssonD000200-1018:054:13
W. LagessonD000002-2216:180:00
B. ChiarotD0001020013:480:04
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Lyon24195.79259:35Loss
C. Talbot000–0:00

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SuzukiC022000+1016:185:41
J. SlafkovskýLW101430+1016:295:38
P. LaineLW101601-1016:035:19
J. EvansC101211+1015:350:00
J. ArmiaRW011011+2015:320:00
C. DvorakC011001+2014:321:12
J. AndersonRW011120+1014:281:11
B. GallagherRW101211+1012:442:39
E. HeinemanLW101130+2212:351:22
C. CaufieldRW000210+1017:385:37
A. NewhookC000200-1013:431:26
K. DachC000010-1213:251:29
L. HutsonD022000+2021:316:05
A. CarrierD011111+1018:500:58
D. SavardD011003+1016:250:00
M. MathesonD000322+2221:251:16
K. GuhleD000011-1220:100:57
A. XhekajD000020+1015:100:35
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Montembeault21201.95259:27Win
C. Primeau000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreDET 3.2, MTL 3.2DET 1, MTL 5
Total goals6.46
Shots on goalDET 27.6, MTL 28.0DET 21, MTL 24
Win chanceDET 51%MTL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
MTL C. Caufield2.920.78033%0
DET D. Larkin2.800.99036%0
DET A. DeBrincat2.630.78030%0
MTL P. Laine2.460.74129%1
DET P. Kane2.320.76025%0
DET L. Raymond2.210.96032%0
MTL M. Matheson2.130.73014%0
DET V. Tarasenko2.020.63026%0
DET M. Seider1.910.63110%0
MTL N. Suzuki1.800.82227%0
MTL B. Gallagher1.820.43118%1
MTL J. Armia1.600.40118%0
MTL J. Slafkovský1.640.58119%1
MTL J. Anderson1.510.36119%0
MTL A. Xhekaj1.400.2708%0
DET B. Chiarot1.410.3007%0
DET M. Kasper1.420.31013%0
MTL K. Dach1.400.40014%0
MTL C. Dvorak1.300.42115%0
DET M. Rasmussen1.320.47019%0
DET J. Compher1.300.57020%0
MTL A. Newhook1.320.43019%0
DET A. Copp1.200.45017%0
DET T. Motte1.210.19011%0
MTL L. Hutson1.200.6726%0
MTL K. Guhle1.100.3309%0
DET J. Berggren1.110.30115%0
DET J. Petry1.110.3706%0
MTL A. Carrier1.010.3116%0
MTL E. Heineman1.010.39117%1
DET E. Gustafsson1.020.3505%0
MTL J. Evans1.020.45113%1
DET J. Veleno0.820.23111%1
MTL D. Savard0.800.3216%0
DET W. Lagesson0.700.1702%0
DET J. Holl0.500.1903%0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.