Game Recap: DET 1, MTL 4, April 8, 2025

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Game Recap

DET1

FinalTue, Apr 8, 2025Every game that night

MTL4

MTL beat DET 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.63 expected goals to 3.72. DET outshot MTL 36 to 21. B. Gallagher led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Berggren had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. S. Montembeault stopped 35 of 36.

Team Stats

DETMTL

36Shots on goal21

3.72Expected goals2.63

70Shot attempts50

335v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/2

24Hits26

18Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways7

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.72 xGMTL 2.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET35 on goal, 1 scored

MTL20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	22:09	4:48
P. Kane	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	19:18	4:48
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	19:39	4:47
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	6	1	1	0	0	19:04	4:48
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0	17:29	1:13
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	15:23	1:07
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	5	2	1	-2	0	14:58	1:12
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:44	0:50
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:19	0:00
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:38	0:00
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	9:13	0:00
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:44	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	27:05	4:55
S. Edvinsson	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	2	22:33	1:05
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	18:29	0:27
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	+1	2	17:57	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	13:33	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	13:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	19	17	2	.895	58:13	Loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+2	0	20:51	4:00
J. Anderson	RW	1	1	2	2	3	0	+2	2	17:24	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+2	0	13:38	1:51
J. Evans	C	0	1	1	1	6	1	+1	0	18:40	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	18:08	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:57	2:08
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	2	16:46	2:09
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:29	1:52
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:28	0:00
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:53	2:11
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:25	1:49
M. Pezzetta	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	5:14	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	4	1	2	+1	0	25:40	1:51
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	17:43	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	2	5	4	+2	0	25:02	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	22:59	2:09
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	12:40	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	12:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	36	35	1	.972	60:00	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayJ.T. Compher DET Turns 30 that day1 SOG
BirthdayMarco Kasper DET Turns 21 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.2, MTL 3.2	DET 1, MTL 4
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	DET 27.7, MTL 27.4	DET 36, MTL 21
Win chance	MTL 51%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.1	6	0.84	0	33%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.1	3	0.94	1	35%	1
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	2	0.80	1	34%	1
DET P. Kane	2.7	2	0.88	1	28%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.4	4	0.91	0	29%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.2	1	1.04	2	30%	1
MTL P. Laine	2.1	0	0.68	0	28%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.1	4	0.57	1	13%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	2.0	2	0.49	2	21%	1
DET M. Kasper	1.9	1	0.51	0	22%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	1	0.67	0	22%	0
DET M. Seider	1.9	1	0.52	0	9%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.7	2	0.51	0	21%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.6	2	0.37	2	19%	1
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	1	0.44	0	19%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.5	2	0.44	0	18%	0
MTL C. Dvorak	1.5	0	0.50	1	18%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.4	1	0.35	0	16%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.4	0	0.34	0	16%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.4	3	0.22	0	7%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	2	0.35	0	8%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	1	0.47	0	18%	0
DET C. Smith	1.3	0	0.27	0	13%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.3	1	0.36	1	6%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	1	0.86	0	8%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.1	5	0.33	0	16%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.1	1	0.43	1	13%	0
DET T. Motte	1.1	2	0.18	0	9%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.0	2	0.38	0	9%	0
DET J. Petry	1.0	1	0.30	0	5%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	0	0.22	0	5%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	0	0.15	0	4%	0
MTL M. Pezzetta	0.6	2	0.14	0	6%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.6	0	0.20	0	3%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.