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Game Recap
DET4
MTL0
DET beat MTL 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.61 expected goals to 2.70. A. DeBrincat led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Rasmussen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Gibson stopped 27 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| MTL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 2nd 4:52DETL. Raymond0.19 xG
- 2nd 11:43DETD. LarkinPP0.13 xG
- 3rd 0:34DETA. DeBrincat0.20 xG
- 3rd 18:53DETA. CoppEN0.82 xG
Team Stats
DETMTL
24Shots on goal27
3.61Expected goals2.70
58Shot attempts66
175v5 shots on goal18
1/5Power play0/1
14Hits27
16Blocked shots17
2Penalty minutes8
7Giveaways12
1Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.61 xGMTL 2.70 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:56 | 5:19 |
| A. Copp | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 17:41 | 2:23 |
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 5:22 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 5:26 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:47 | 5:25 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:44 | 2:26 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:17 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:18 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 1:28 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:19 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:00 | 2:25 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:43 | 5:35 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:05 | 0:15 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:57 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 2:24 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:11 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:15 | 1:14 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:32 | 0:45 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:50 | 0:47 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:34 | 1:13 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:45 | 1:13 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 16:39 | 1:13 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:21 | 0:47 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:06 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:47 |
| S. Blais | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| O. Beck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 24:00 | 1:13 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 23:11 | 0:02 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:53 | 0:47 |
| K. Guhle | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:18 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1P. Kane13:18A. Copp14:24A. DeBrincat11:07
Line 2M. Appleton12:29M. Rasmussen12:11E. Soderblom11:07
Line 3J. Compher11:50L. Raymond11:10J. Riemsdyk10:49
Pair 1M. Seider19:05S. Edvinsson19:12
Pair 2B. Chiarot18:18A. Sandin-Pellikka12:49
Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker12:46A. Johansson10:33
MTL
Line 1N. Suzuki15:26C. Caufield13:30A. Texier14:29
Line 2O. Kapanen14:20J. Slafkovský14:25I. Demidov13:36
Line 3B. Gallagher9:55Z. Bolduc9:08P. Danault9:13
Pair 1M. Matheson15:37N. Dobson14:16
Pair 2A. Carrier13:39L. Hutson20:51
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.1, MTL 3.3 | DET 4, MTL 0 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.0, MTL 26.7 | DET 24, MTL 27 |
| Win chance | MTL 54% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.9 | 3 | 0.79 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| MTL C. Caufield | 2.9 | 5 | 0.85 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 3 | 0.86 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.3 | 2 | 0.72 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 4 | 1.00 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.1 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.9 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.99 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.5 | 1 | 0.52 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.84 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL P. Danault | 1.5 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL K. Guhle | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 4 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.1 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 0.9 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL O. Beck | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.8 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 0.7 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 1 | 0.15 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL S. Blais | 0.7 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.