Game Recap: DET 0, MTL 1 (SO), October 10, 2026

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Game Recap

DET0

Final/SOSat, Oct 10, 2026Every game that night

MTL1

MTL beat DET 1-0 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.48 expected goals to 3.23. A. DeBrincat had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. J. Fowler stopped 30 of 30.

Team Stats

DETMTL

30Shots on goal30

3.23Expected goals3.48

51Shot attempts76

175v5 shots on goal21

0/4Power play0/4

22Hits19

22Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways13

5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 3.23 xGMTL 3.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET28 on goal, 0 scored

MTL30 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	4	0	1	2	22:40	5:56
A. DeBrincat	RW	7	1	0	0	21:50	5:36
L. Raymond	LW	4	1	0	2	21:11	5:34
V. Arvidsson	LW	4	0	0	0	19:25	5:33
A. Copp	C	2	1	2	0	19:18	1:59
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	3	0	18:06	2:01
E. Finnie	C	2	0	0	0	17:25	1:37
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	1	1	0	0	15:07	1:36
K. Kolesar	RW	0	2	2	0	14:55	0:00
S. Dries	C	0	2	2	0	9:34	0:00
N. Danielson	C	0	1	0	0	9:03	0:01
M. Seider	D	0	6	6	0	29:33	5:40
B. Chiarot	D	2	0	2	0	20:51	0:24
J. Faulk	D	0	2	1	2	18:15	1:53
A. Johansson	D	2	0	1	0	15:57	0:00
A. Englund	D	1	3	1	0	14:18	0:00
A. Johansson	D	1	1	1	2	10:42	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	1	0	0	8:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	30	30	0	1.000	65:00	OT loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	3	1	1	0	26:06	6:04
J. Slafkovský	LW	5	2	1	0	22:10	6:07
C. Caufield	RW	6	0	0	0	21:17	6:05
A. Texier	LW	2	0	0	2	18:04	1:53
P. Danault	C	1	1	0	0	17:23	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	2	1	0	0	17:21	6:27
A. Newhook	C	0	0	1	0	16:56	1:51
Z. Bolduc	RW	3	0	0	2	15:48	1:35
J. Anderson	RW	0	4	0	0	14:54	0:01
J. Evans	C	1	1	1	2	11:53	0:00
K. Dach	C	0	2	0	2	7:35	1:23
L. Hutson	D	2	0	1	0	26:30	6:23
M. Matheson	D	2	0	2	0	23:01	0:19
N. Dobson	D	1	1	0	0	19:54	1:37
A. Carrier	D	1	2	3	0	18:23	0:00
K. Guhle	D	0	4	0	0	15:35	0:15
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	7:30	0:00
A. Engstrom	D	1	0	2	0	6:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Fowler	30	30	0	1.000	64:46	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1D. Larkin12:43L. Raymond13:28V. Arvidsson12:30

Line 2A. DeBrincat14:16E. Finnie13:04M. Brandsegg-Nygård13:26

Line 3A. Copp11:03M. Rasmussen11:09K. Kolesar12:51

Line 4N. Danielson9:02S. Dries8:26

Pair 1B. Chiarot15:24M. Seider16:43

Pair 2J. Faulk14:12A. Johansson13:44

Pair 3A. Johansson10:08A. Englund11:39

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:24J. Slafkovský14:05C. Caufield13:16

Line 2A. Texier14:53Z. Bolduc13:21P. Danault13:10

Line 3J. Anderson12:29A. Newhook11:23C. Kreider10:54

Line 4J. Evans8:05K. Dach5:26

Pair 1N. Dobson15:24L. Hutson17:42

Pair 2M. Matheson14:58A. Carrier14:01

Pair 3A. Engstrom6:45K. Guhle12:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 13 overs hit (77%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MTL C. Caufield	3.5	+135	-155	6	Over
DET A. DeBrincat	2.5	-170	+135	7	Over
DET D. Larkin	2.5	-120	+100	4	Over
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.5	+110	-125	5	Over
MTL N. Suzuki	2.5	+115	-150	3	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-113	-115	4	Over
DET A. Copp	1.5	-105	-110	2	Over
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	-110	-120	0	Under
MTL C. Kreider	1.5	-125	+105	2	Over
MTL L. Hutson	1.5	-110	+100	2	Over
DET L. Raymond	1.5	-180	+135	4	Over
DET M. Seider	1.5	-130	+130	0	Under
MTL N. Dobson	1.5	-170	+130	1	Under

0 of 33 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
MTL A. Carrier	0.5	+1300	-3500	Under
DET A. Copp	0.5	+500	-800	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+175	-200	Under
MTL A. Engstrom	0.5	+1300	-10000	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+2100	-10000	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+380	-500	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+475	-700	Under
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.5	+1900	-5000	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+2400	-3500	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+115	-145	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+235	-320	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+190	-225	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+550	-800	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+440	-700	Under
MTL J. Evans	0.5	+575	-800	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+900	-2000	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+195	-250	Under
MTL K. Dach	0.5	+475	-650	Under
MTL K. Guhle	0.5	+1300	-2800	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+1000	-2000	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+500	-800	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+260	-400	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+500	-1000	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+800	-2500	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+700	-2000	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+700	-1200	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+1100	-2000	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+575	-1000	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	+185	-220	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+600	-900	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+950	-3500	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+230	-275	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+360	-550	Under

0 of 31 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
MTL A. Carrier	0.5	+400	-600	Under
DET A. Copp	0.5	+380	-500	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+160	-200	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+750	-1400	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+290	-375	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+475	-750	Under
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.5	+600	-1000	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+550	-900	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+130	-150	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+200	-220	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+155	-200	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+320	-475	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+390	-575	Under
MTL J. Evans	0.5	+550	-900	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+330	-475	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+130	-155	Under
MTL K. Dach	0.5	+425	-450	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+700	-1200	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-148	+130	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+130	-160	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+310	-450	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+215	-290	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+340	-500	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+130	-155	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+600	-1000	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+160	-175	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	-135	+120	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+380	-550	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+650	-1100	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+195	-235	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+310	-450	Under

0 of 31 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
MTL N. Suzuki	1.5	+162	-190	Under
MTL A. Carrier	0.5	+295	-425	Under
DET A. Copp	0.5	+200	-210	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-150	+135	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+500	-800	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+150	-160	Under
MTL A. Texier	0.5	+230	-310	Under
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.5	+400	-600	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+425	-650	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	-215	+195	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	-110	-105	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	-140	+125	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+190	-265	Under
MTL J. Anderson	0.5	+180	-245	Under
MTL J. Evans	0.5	+260	-370	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+230	-320	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	-175	+145	Under
MTL K. Dach	0.5	+210	-220	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+400	-600	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	-180	+165	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-135	+115	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+185	-255	Under
MTL M. Matheson	0.5	+170	-205	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+215	-300	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+100	-125	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+390	-575	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+105	-125	Under
MTL P. Danault	0.5	+210	-290	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+340	-500	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-110	+100	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+150	-180	Under

0 of 16 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+250	-240	Under
MTL A. Newhook	0.5	+450	-1200	Under
MTL C. Caufield	0.5	+170	-235	Under
MTL C. Kreider	0.5	+300	-525	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+275	-290	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
MTL J. Slafkovský	0.5	+200	-225	Under
MTL K. Dach	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
MTL L. Hutson	0.5	+175	-235	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+260	-275	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+250	-290	Under
MTL N. Dobson	0.5	+360	-800	Under
MTL N. Suzuki	0.5	+130	-175	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+275	-350	Under
MTL Z. Bolduc	0.5	+450	-1200	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
DET D. Tarasov	25.5	-104	-128	30	Over
MTL J. Fowler	22.5	-105	+100	30	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
MTL A. Carrier	1.5	-115	-120	3	Over
MTL N. Dobson	1.5	-150	+110	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.0, MTL 3.3	DET 0, MTL 1
Total goals	6.4	1
Shots on goal	DET 28.3, MTL 25.8	DET 30, MTL 30
Win chance	MTL 55%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Goal chance
MTL C. Caufield	3.1	6	0.99	40%
DET A. DeBrincat	3.0	7	0.88	32%
DET D. Larkin	2.8	4	0.82	32%
DET V. Arvidsson	2.8	4	0.76	28%
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.4	5	0.84	28%
MTL N. Suzuki	2.3	3	1.20	32%
DET L. Raymond	2.3	4	0.87	26%
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	2.0	1	0.32	13%
DET M. Seider	2.0	0	0.60	9%
MTL N. Dobson	2.0	1	0.58	13%
MTL A. Newhook	1.7	0	0.57	24%
MTL C. Kreider	1.7	2	0.70	31%
MTL L. Hutson	1.6	2	1.04	13%
DET J. Faulk	1.6	0	0.43	10%
MTL J. Anderson	1.6	0	0.39	20%
DET E. Finnie	1.5	2	0.36	16%
DET A. Copp	1.4	2	0.48	15%
MTL M. Matheson	1.4	2	0.40	9%
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	3	0.46	20%
DET M. Rasmussen	1.3	0	0.30	14%
MTL P. Danault	1.2	1	0.45	15%
MTL A. Texier	1.2	2	0.42	16%
DET B. Chiarot	1.1	2	0.17	5%
MTL J. Evans	1.1	1	0.43	14%
MTL K. Guhle	1.0	0	0.33	7%
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.9	0	0.25	7%
DET N. Danielson	0.9	0	0.20	8%
MTL K. Dach	0.9	0	0.31	12%
DET K. Kolesar	0.9	0	0.22	10%
DET A. Johansson	0.8	2	0.14	4%
MTL A. Engstrom	0.8	1	0.13	3%
MTL A. Carrier	0.6	1	0.27	5%
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	0	0.09	3%

Shots on goal: 19 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.