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Game Recap
DET5
NJD2
DET beat NJD 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.37 expected goals to 1.96. E. Haula led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Sprong had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. A. Lyon stopped 28 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| NJD | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 1st 17:07DETJ. Berggren0.15 xG
- 2nd 5:20DETJ. Compher0.03 xG
- 3rd 2:55DETD. Larkin0.20 xG
- 3rd 11:32NJDE. HaulaPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 14:21NJDD. Mercer0.34 xG
- 3rd 17:09DETA. DeBrincat0.05 xG
- 3rd 19:50DETM. KasperEN0.70 xG
Team Stats
DETNJD
27Shots on goal30
3.37Expected goals1.96
54Shot attempts62
165v5 shots on goal24
0/4Power play1/2
17Hits18
16Blocked shots12
8Penalty minutes8
10Giveaways11
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.37 xGNJD 1.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:32 | 3:50 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:37 | 3:51 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:38 | 1:44 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:26 | 3:17 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:04 | 2:10 |
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:24 | 1:58 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:14 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:51 | 3:36 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:18 | 2:24 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Watson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 0 | 24:17 | 4:01 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 2 | 22:50 | 2:19 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 19:16 | 0:23 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:01 |
| W. Lagesson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
NJD Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Haula | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 2:27 |
| D. Mercer | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:47 | 2:31 |
| D. Sprong | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:56 | 2:50 |
| M. Hardman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Glass | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:33 | 0:42 |
| N. Bastian | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:54 | 0:36 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:59 | 0:00 |
| N. Foote | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:15 | 0:40 |
| T. Tatar | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:10 | 2:25 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| M. McLaughlin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| K. MacDermid | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| S. Casey | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:41 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 26:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Hamilton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 23:42 | 2:26 |
| S. Nemec | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 21:46 | 0:17 |
| B. Dillon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:20 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.1, NJD 3.0 | DET 5, NJD 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 26.3, NJD 26.7 | DET 27, NJD 30 |
| Win chance | DET 51% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.8 | 6 | 0.77 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.6 | 2 | 0.81 | 2 | 31% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.6 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NJD D. Hamilton | 2.5 | 4 | 0.57 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 2.0 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| NJD D. Sprong | 1.9 | 7 | 0.47 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| NJD D. Mercer | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NJD E. Haula | 1.7 | 3 | 0.40 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NJD C. Glass | 1.5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DET C. Smith | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD T. Tatar | 1.0 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD N. Foote | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NJD S. Casey | 1.0 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD M. McLaughlin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NJD S. Nemec | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD N. Bastian | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dumoulin | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD J. Dowling | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD C. Lazar | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NJD B. Dillon | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NJD D. Cholowski | 0.8 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET W. Lagesson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| DET A. Watson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NJD M. Hardman | 0.7 | 2 | 0.12 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NJD K. MacDermid | 0.4 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.