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Game Recap
DET5
NSH2
DET beat NSH 5-2, with the chances close: 3.25 expected goals to 3.38. NSH outshot DET 39 to 24. A. Copp led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). F. Forsberg had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 4.2. A. Lyon stopped 37 of 39.
Team Stats
DETNSH
24Shots on goal39
3.25Expected goals3.38
44Shot attempts78
175v5 shots on goal31
1/3Power play1/2
25Hits27
16Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways9
12Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.25 xGNSH 3.38 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Copp | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 3:27 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:44 | 3:27 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:15 | 1:30 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:31 | 3:27 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:00 | 1:33 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:34 | 1:27 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:54 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:00 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 18:44 | 3:24 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 1:30 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 21:12 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 2 | 22:45 | 1:30 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:03 | 0:03 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:57 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 3:27 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:51 | 1:36 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:54 | 1:40 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:36 | 1:40 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:36 | 1:36 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:04 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:29 | 0:04 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:07 | 0:00 |
| P. Tomasino | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 5:08 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 26:54 | 1:40 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:46 | 0:04 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Lauzon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 58:30 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.0, NSH 3.8 | DET 5, NSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | DET 27.9, NSH 35.4 | DET 24, NSH 39 |
| Win chance | NSH 62% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 4.2 | 7 | 1.27 | 1 | 44% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 3.4 | 6 | 1.14 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.4 | 0 | 0.95 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.4 | 4 | 1.13 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.1 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.8 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 1 | 0.73 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.4 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.3 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.1 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 2 | 0.77 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.9 | 1 | 0.90 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 3 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.5 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.4 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH P. Tomasino | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH J. Lauzon | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH M. Jankowski | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH A. Carrier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 3 | 0.38 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.1 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 0.9 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| DET O. Maatta | 0.6 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.