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Game Recap
DET4
NSH2
DET beat NSH 4-2, with the chances close: 3.87 expected goals to 3.27. A. DeBrincat led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). R. O'Reilly had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Talbot stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| NSH | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 4:51DETE. Finnie0.35 xG
- 1st 17:02NSHF. ForsbergPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 7:10NSHJ. Marchessault0.29 xG
- 2nd 9:45DETL. Raymond0.11 xG
- 2nd 16:36DETA. JohanssonSH0.19 xG
- 3rd 19:32DETA. DeBrincatEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
DETNSH
31Shots on goal30
3.87Expected goals3.27
53Shot attempts72
255v5 shots on goal24
0/2Power play1/3
14Hits18
19Blocked shots8
6Penalty minutes4
16Giveaways10
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.87 xGNSH 3.27 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:59 | 1:36 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:02 | 1:33 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:22 | 0:45 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 13:58 | 0:17 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:27 |
| E. Finnie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:17 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:46 | 1:34 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:00 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:32 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:24 |
| D. Shine | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:35 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:45 | 0:17 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 23:36 | 1:42 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:26 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:33 | 4:01 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:34 | 3:35 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 3:54 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:09 | 2:43 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:47 | 3:38 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:15 | 1:33 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 13:32 | 2:12 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 1:04 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:12 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:10 | 0:12 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 26:09 | 4:49 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:46 | 0:12 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:18 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 57:01 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1A. DeBrincat15:00L. Raymond14:54A. Copp14:12
Line 2D. Larkin14:56M. Rasmussen13:09P. Kane13:15
Line 3M. Kasper12:07M. Appleton12:06E. Finnie9:51
Line 4J. Riemsdyk9:05D. Shine8:29J. Compher9:06
Pair 1M. Seider18:29S. Edvinsson18:43
Pair 2B. Chiarot18:43J. Bernard-Docker17:41
Pair 3A. Johansson12:59A. Sandin-Pellikka11:50
NSH
Line 1S. Stamkos13:39R. O'Reilly14:27J. Marchessault14:01
Line 2L. Evangelista15:26E. Haula13:36F. Forsberg11:59
Line 3T. Jost12:29Z. L'Heureux11:34M. Wood10:18
Line 4M. McCarron9:48C. Smith10:16M. Bunting9:22
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.2, NSH 3.1 | DET 4, NSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DET 28.0, NSH 29.3 | DET 31, NSH 30 |
| Win chance | DET 51% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.3 | 3 | 0.91 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.2 | 6 | 0.93 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.1 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 6 | 0.92 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.6 | 0 | 0.85 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.3 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.2 | 0 | 0.64 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 3 | 0.93 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 7 | 0.86 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 2.0 | 1 | 0.42 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.8 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.7 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.6 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.1 | 3 | 0.29 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.1 | 5 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.0 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| NSH J. Barron | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET D. Shine | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.