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Game Recap
DET1
NYI0
DET beat NYI 1-0 despite fewer good chances: 0.92 expected goals to 2.79. NYI outshot DET 30 to 11. A. Lyon stopped 30 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NYI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 8:54DETP. Kane0.22 xG
Team Stats
DETNYI
11Shots on goal30
0.92Expected goals2.79
26Shot attempts65
105v5 shots on goal21
0/1Power play0/3
10Hits13
15Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes2
19Giveaways16
1Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 0.92 xGNYI 2.79 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:58 |
| P. Kane | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:17 | 1:06 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:49 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 1:01 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:23 | 1:02 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 1:02 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:03 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:55 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:58 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:01 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23:38 | 0:05 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:36 | 0:51 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:47 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:42 | 1:09 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Barzal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:47 | 2:13 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:19 | 3:48 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:56 | 2:06 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 3:47 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 3:41 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:34 | 3:51 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 2:14 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:01 | 2:09 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:46 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:14 | 0:00 |
| L. Foudy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:52 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:06 | 3:43 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:58 | 0:07 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:04 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Reilly | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:06 | 2:17 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 11 | 10 | 1 | .909 | 57:44 | Loss |
| S. Varlamov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.1, NYI 3.6 | DET 1, NYI 0 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 1 |
| Shots on goal | DET 29.6, NYI 33.9 | DET 11, NYI 30 |
| Win chance | NYI 58% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.2 | 3 | 0.88 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.1 | 3 | 0.97 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 3.1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 3.1 | 4 | 1.08 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 3.0 | 5 | 0.98 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.8 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.7 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.6 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.3 | 4 | 0.81 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 1 | 0.77 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 0 | 0.54 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI M. Reilly | 1.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.6 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.5 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.4 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI L. Foudy | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.0 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.