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Game Recap
DET4
NYI2
DET beat NYI 4-2, with the chances close: 2.40 expected goals to 2.85. NYI outshot DET 29 to 21. M. Seider led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Nelson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. A. Lyon stopped 27 of 29.
Team Stats
DETNYI
21Shots on goal29
2.40Expected goals2.85
53Shot attempts55
185v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play0/3
24Hits23
11Blocked shots14
10Penalty minutes8
12Giveaways15
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 2.40 xGNYI 2.85 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 20:08 | 3:55 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:00 | 3:48 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:44 | 1:44 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:09 | 2:17 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:56 | 3:17 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:21 | 3:20 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 2:17 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:48 | 1:35 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 24:59 | 3:41 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 22:28 | 0:32 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:43 | 0:00 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 21:25 | 0:03 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 1:21 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:55 | 3:08 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:51 | 3:02 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:19 | 2:33 |
| A. Lee | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17:03 | 2:30 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:51 | 2:56 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:49 | 2:32 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 3:04 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:56 | 0:05 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:48 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 23:45 | 2:54 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:01 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 22:50 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:00 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 4:17 |
| G. Hutton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Varlamov | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 57:14 | Loss |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.8, NYI 3.3 | DET 4, NYI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | DET 27.5, NYI 32.5 | DET 21, NYI 29 |
| Win chance | NYI 58% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 5 | 0.82 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.9 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 2.9 | 6 | 0.88 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.8 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 4 | 0.86 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.5 | 5 | 0.70 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.4 | 3 | 0.77 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.0 | 2 | 0.78 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 3 | 0.51 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.8 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.6 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.6 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.5 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 2 | 8% | 1 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI G. Hutton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI I. George | 1.1 | 0 | 0.17 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.10 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 0.9 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.