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Game Recap
DET2
NYI7
NYI beat DET 7-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.25 expected goals to 4.13. A. Lee led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). A. Lee had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. D. Rittich stopped 32 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| NYI | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
- 1st 2:05NYIT. DeAngelo0.12 xG
- 1st 14:56NYIE. Heineman0.13 xG
- 2nd 7:25NYIJ. Pageau0.13 xG
- 2nd 13:09NYIK. Palmieri0.17 xG
- 2nd 19:34NYIM. Barzal0.21 xG
- 3rd 3:11DETD. LarkinPP0.60 xG
- 3rd 7:19NYIE. Heineman0.09 xG
- 3rd 7:57NYIS. Holmstrom0.30 xG
- 3rd 17:20DETJ. Berggren0.23 xG
Team Stats
DETNYI
34Shots on goal30
4.13Expected goals3.25
77Shot attempts53
245v5 shots on goal20
1/5Power play0/3
28Hits14
11Blocked shots22
16Penalty minutes32
9Giveaways10
2Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 4.13 xGNYI 3.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 6:11 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:14 | 6:00 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:53 | 6:01 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 2:38 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:44 | 3:46 |
| M. Brandsegg-Nygård | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:08 | 3:49 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:10 | 5:51 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:41 | 2:32 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 14:09 | 1:03 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 12 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 12:25 | 1:06 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:34 | 6:09 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:10 | 3:37 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:01 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:04 |
| J. Bernard-Docker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:00 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 4 | 14:07 | 0:02 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 2 | 12:50 | 2:12 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:57 | 3:48 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:52 | 2:02 |
| M. Barzal | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:43 | 3:48 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 14:40 | 2:12 |
| J. Pageau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:59 | 3:48 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:41 | 3:27 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| A. Duclair | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:04 | 2:12 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 12 | 9:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:40 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:21 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:32 | 2:12 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +3 | 12 | 22:43 | 0:00 |
| M. Schaefer | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:14 | 3:48 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:06 | 0:10 |
| A. Boqvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Rittich | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 59:44 | Win |
| I. Sorokin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1A. DeBrincat11:52E. Finnie12:41D. Larkin12:10
Line 2L. Raymond11:19M. Kasper14:09A. Copp9:52
Line 3M. Appleton11:40M. Rasmussen9:05E. Soderblom9:32
Line 4J. Compher10:29J. Berggren9:42M. Brandsegg-Nygård8:03
Pair 1B. Chiarot13:47M. Seider15:51
Pair 2A. Sandin-Pellikka16:12S. Edvinsson13:25
Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker12:51A. Johansson15:10
NYI
Line 1A. Duclair12:52M. Barzal13:38K. Palmieri11:38
Line 2B. Horvat12:50J. Drouin11:14E. Heineman12:28
Line 3J. Pageau10:20S. Holmstrom10:26A. Lee10:22
Line 4C. Cizikas8:12K. MacLean8:16M. Tsyplakov8:16
Pair 1S. Mayfield17:03M. Schaefer15:52
Pair 3T. DeAngelo13:37A. Boqvist12:42
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.0, NYI 3.3 | DET 2, NYI 7 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | DET 27.5, NYI 30.1 | DET 34, NYI 30 |
| Win chance | NYI 56% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.2 | 0 | 0.89 | 2 | 37% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.9 | 5 | 0.77 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| NYI M. Barzal | 2.8 | 2 | 1.04 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 5 | 0.91 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.6 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.4 | 6 | 0.57 | 3 | 26% | 0 |
| NYI M. Schaefer | 2.4 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.9 | 4 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.8 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård | 1.6 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI A. Duclair | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI J. Drouin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.73 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.3 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 2 | 0.34 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.2 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.1 | 3 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| NYI A. Boqvist | 1.1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI E. Heineman | 1.1 | 4 | 0.32 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.0 | 4 | 0.42 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Bernard-Docker | 0.7 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.