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Game Recap
DET1
NYR4
NYR beat DET 4-1, with the chances close: 4.23 expected goals to 3.68. M. Zibanejad led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Compher had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. I. Shesterkin stopped 31 of 32.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 11:45NYRA. Lafrenière0.10 xG
- 1st 19:58DETD. Larkin0.20 xG
- 2nd 17:05NYRC. KreiderPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 4:51NYRR. Smith0.03 xG
- 3rd 18:38NYRM. ZibanejadEN0.78 xG
Team Stats
DETNYR
32Shots on goal28
3.68Expected goals4.23
53Shot attempts59
215v5 shots on goal19
0/4Power play1/5
19Hits20
17Blocked shots10
8Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways10
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.68 xGNYR 4.23 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:37 | 4:19 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 4:46 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 4:42 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:24 | 4:41 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 2:02 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:47 | 1:38 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:54 | 1:32 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:00 | 1:38 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 10:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Watson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 4:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2 | 25:57 | 4:51 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:31 | 1:29 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:02 |
| O. Maatta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:37 | 5:09 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 17:10 | 4:58 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:47 | 4:55 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:18 | 1:32 |
| R. Smith | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:39 | 1:04 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:07 | 5:16 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 1:13 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 1:18 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:32 | 0:00 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:24 | 0:29 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:20 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:04 | 1:03 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:53 | 4:56 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:32 | 0:07 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 32 | 31 | 1 | .969 | 59:48 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.0, NYR 3.8 | DET 1, NYR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | DET 29.4, NYR 33.2 | DET 32, NYR 28 |
| Win chance | NYR 62% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.7 | 1 | 1.42 | 3 | 37% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.5 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 3.2 | 2 | 0.96 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 3.1 | 5 | 1.07 | 3 | 33% | 1 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 3.1 | 5 | 1.04 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.1 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 3.0 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 3.0 | 2 | 0.76 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.3 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.3 | 5 | 0.76 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR R. Smith | 2.3 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 2.0 | 0 | 0.96 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.9 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.8 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.6 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.6 | 5 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.6 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.4 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.4 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.3 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET A. Watson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET O. Maatta | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 12 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.