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Game Recap
DET2
NYR1
DET beat NYR 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.44 expected goals to 2.09. DET outshot NYR 42 to 19. L. Raymond led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). L. Raymond had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Talbot stopped 18 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 9:30DETA. DeBrincatPP0.74 xG
- 2nd 11:59NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.24 xG
- 3rd 16:13DETL. Raymond0.20 xG
Team Stats
DETNYR
42Shots on goal19
5.44Expected goals2.09
76Shot attempts59
245v5 shots on goal17
1/5Power play1/2
23Hits26
21Blocked shots18
14Penalty minutes10
12Giveaways19
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 5.44 xGNYR 2.09 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:22 | 6:35 |
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:49 | 6:32 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:51 | 6:20 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:00 | 6:34 |
| E. Finnie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 3:16 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 2:46 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 1:26 |
| N. Danielson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 3:03 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 1:37 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:47 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 22:22 | 2:51 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22:33 | 0:11 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 6:44 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:36 | 3:47 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:46 | 3:40 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:12 | 3:47 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:43 | 0:07 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:47 | 3:19 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:25 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:00 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 10:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:47 | 3:37 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 24:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:03 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Morrow | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:10 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 42 | 40 | 2 | .952 | 58:30 | Loss |
| I. Shesterkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
DET
Line 1P. Kane13:58E. Finnie14:13J. Compher14:26
Line 2D. Larkin12:43A. DeBrincat12:14L. Raymond12:08
Line 3J. Riemsdyk9:02A. Copp9:16M. Rasmussen9:41
Line 4M. Kasper9:02N. Danielson8:42M. Appleton9:01
Pair 1M. Seider18:04S. Edvinsson19:27
Pair 2B. Chiarot16:29A. Sandin-Pellikka13:11
Pair 3T. Hamonic11:02A. Johansson11:16
NYR
Line 1V. Trocheck16:01A. Lafrenière15:07A. Panarin15:19
Line 2S. Carrick10:04T. Raddysh10:09A. Edstrom9:21
Line 3M. Zibanejad9:34W. Cuylle8:48J. Miller10:14
Line 4J. Brodzinski10:01C. Sheary10:23N. Laba9:13
Pair 1V. Gavrikov19:39A. Fox19:31
Pair 2C. Soucy16:47B. Schneider14:54
Pair 3S. Morrow9:46M. Robertson9:04
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 3.0, NYR 3.3 | DET 2, NYR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | DET 27.8, NYR 27.5 | DET 42, NYR 19 |
| Win chance | NYR 55% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.1 | 4 | 0.79 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.9 | 1 | 1.20 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.9 | 7 | 0.92 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.7 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.3 | 7 | 0.72 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.3 | 1 | 1.09 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 2.2 | 0 | 0.61 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 7 | 0.81 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 2.0 | 0 | 1.00 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 1.9 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.9 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR C. Sheary | 1.3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR S. Morrow | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 1.0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.0 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.