DET beat SEA 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.60 expected goals to 2.88. DET outshot SEA 40 to 27. S. Wright led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). L. Raymond had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. C. Talbot stopped 23 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| SEA | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 3:36DETL. Raymond0.10 xG
- 1st 9:28SEAM. Beniers0.17 xG
- 1st 19:30DETM. SeiderPP0.05 xG
- 2nd 6:29SEAS. Wright0.02 xG
- 2nd 12:07DETJ. BerggrenPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 3:21DETE. Soderblom0.14 xG
- 3rd 10:10SEAS. Wright0.12 xG
- 3rd 17:04SEAC. Stephenson0.10 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
DET 3.60 xGSEA 2.88 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:35 | 3:24 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:52 | 3:28 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:03 | 1:02 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:53 | 3:25 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:48 |
| E. Soderblom | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:46 | 0:10 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:15 | 0:14 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:46 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 3:33 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 1:55 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:18 | 1:56 |
| D. Shine | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:36 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:38 | 3:25 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:40 | 0:15 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:53 | 0:03 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 0:04 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:24 | 2:02 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wright | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:56 | 1:03 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:31 | 1:03 |
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:10 | 0:57 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:56 | 0:57 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:26 | 0:57 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:35 | 1:03 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:16 | 0:57 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:40 | 1:03 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:34 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:06 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 28:08 | 0:57 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:51 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 27:04 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 22:48 | 1:03 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 40 | 36 | 4 | .900 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| A. Stezka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DET 2.9, SEA 2.9 | DET 5, SEA 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | DET 27.0, SEA 28.3 | DET 40, SEA 27 |
| Win chance | SEA 51% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET D. Larkin | 3.1 | 5 | 0.94 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.8 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.7 | 4 | 0.76 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.5 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.3 | 1 | 0.76 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.3 | 4 | 0.75 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.2 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 6 | 0.89 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 2.0 | 4 | 0.56 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 2.0 | 4 | 0.65 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.9 | 4 | 0.58 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.8 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.7 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.5 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| DET E. Soderblom | 1.3 | 4 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.2 | 2 | 0.57 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 3 | 0.25 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 0.7 | 0 | 0.08 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.