Game Recap: DET 4, SEA 3, December 6, 2025

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Game Recap

DET4

FinalSat, Dec 6, 2025Every game that night

SEA3

DET beat SEA 4-3, with the chances close: 2.96 expected goals to 3.13. A. Larsson led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Dunn had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. J. Gibson stopped 24 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DET	1	2	1	4
SEA	1	2	0	3

1st 7:06DETE. FinniePP0.15 xG
1st 16:16SEAB. Montour0.03 xG
2nd 5:10DETA. Copp0.31 xG
2nd 6:44SEAA. Larsson0.02 xG
2nd 12:44SEAC. Stephenson0.07 xG
2nd 19:32DETJ. van Riemsdyk0.15 xG
3rd 17:31DETP. Kane0.12 xG

Team Stats

DETSEA

25Shots on goal27

2.96Expected goals3.13

61Shot attempts77

225v5 shots on goal22

1/1Power play0/2

19Hits17

25Blocked shots20

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways7

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.96 xGSEA 3.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET25 on goal, 4 scored

SEA27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	16:50	1:21
J. Compher	LW	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	0	16:23	0:00
A. Copp	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	15:49	0:25
E. Finnie	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	-2	2	15:09	0:25
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	14:20	0:25
P. Kane	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	2	14:00	1:21
N. Danielson	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	0	9:00	0:25
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:50	1:21
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	16:05	0:00
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:26	1:21
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:27	0:00
E. Soderblom	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:19	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	2	2	3	3	4	+3	0	24:48	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	+3	2	24:05	1:21
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	1	1	0	0	5	-2	0	15:38	0:25
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	4	4	-2	0	23:30	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	16:49	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	13:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	27	24	3	.889	59:58	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	21:36	3:31
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	20:52	3:31
C. Stephenson	C	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	0	19:55	3:33
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	1	3	1	-1	0	13:31	0:25
T. Kartye	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+1	0	8:34	0:00
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:32	3:43
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:04	0:29
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:10	0:04
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:24	0:13
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	12:17	0:04
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	11:24	0:20
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:41	0:00
A. Larsson	D	1	1	2	2	1	2	0	0	21:52	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	5	0	2	+1	2	24:27	3:47
B. Montour	D	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	23:29	0:13
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	19:28	0:07
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:30	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	12:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	25	21	4	.840	58:48	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1L. Raymond15:42E. Finnie13:29D. Larkin12:10

Line 2A. DeBrincat14:32P. Kane12:39A. Copp12:36

Line 3J. Riemsdyk13:02M. Rasmussen14:06J. Compher12:24

Line 4M. Kasper12:21E. Soderblom11:17N. Danielson8:33

Pair 1M. Seider21:24S. Edvinsson21:50

Pair 2B. Chiarot19:14A. Sandin-Pellikka14:33

Pair 3J. Bernard-Docker13:23A. Johansson11:45

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle15:47M. Beniers15:05J. McCann13:59

Line 2C. Stephenson12:54M. Marchment16:33E. Tolvanen12:12

Line 3K. Kakko12:11S. Wright11:04B. Catton12:11

Line 4T. Kartye8:34R. Winterton9:33F. Gaudreau12:39

Pair 1A. Larsson19:35V. Dunn19:28

Pair 2B. Montour20:59R. Lindgren17:16

Pair 3R. Evans12:47J. Mahura12:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.1, SEA 3.0	DET 4, SEA 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	DET 28.4, SEA 26.1	DET 25, SEA 27
Win chance	DET 52%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.3	0	0.89	1	33%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.1	1	1.00	0	35%	0
DET P. Kane	2.6	1	0.82	1	24%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.5	1	0.84	0	31%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.4	4	0.58	1	16%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.4	1	0.94	0	28%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	1	0.74	1	26%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.2	5	0.72	1	15%	0
DET M. Seider	2.0	2	0.55	1	8%	0
SEA M. Marchment	2.0	3	0.70	0	26%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	1	0.65	1	24%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	1	0.49	1	22%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.6	2	0.41	1	16%	1
DET M. Kasper	1.4	0	0.29	0	15%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.4	4	0.42	1	17%	1
DET N. Danielson	1.3	2	0.26	1	10%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	1	0.22	0	6%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	0	0.56	0	21%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	2	0.31	2	7%	1
DET E. Soderblom	1.2	0	0.29	0	13%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	2	0.43	0	16%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.2	3	0.35	2	9%	0
DET A. Copp	1.2	3	0.40	1	13%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	2	0.71	1	21%	1
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	1	0.37	0	16%	0
DET J. Compher	1.1	2	0.34	1	14%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	3	0.31	0	13%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.1	0	0.36	0	12%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.1	0	0.25	1	6%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	1	0.17	0	9%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	1	0.26	1	13%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	1	0.27	0	4%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.9	0	0.15	0	3%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	0	0.21	0	3%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	0	0.14	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.32	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.