Game Recap: DET 3, SEA 4 (SO), October 20, 2026

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Game Recap

DET3

Final/SOTue, Oct 20, 2026Every game that night

SEA4

SEA beat DET 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.75 expected goals to 2.68. A. DeBrincat led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Ottavainen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. P. Grubauer stopped 22 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
DET	0	0	3	0	3
SEA	1	2	0	1	4

1st 6:45SEAM. Samoskevich0.03 xG
2nd 3:22SEAR. EvansPP0.13 xG
2nd 16:01SEAB. Montour0.06 xG
3rd 6:25DETV. Arvidsson0.05 xG
3rd 7:24DETL. RaymondPP0.19 xG
3rd 19:43DETA. DeBrincatPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

DETSEA

25Shots on goal27

2.68Expected goals2.75

74Shot attempts54

175v5 shots on goal22

2/4Power play1/3

24Hits13

17Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways15

8Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.68 xGSEA 2.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET24 on goal, 3 scored

SEA27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	2	24:08	3:56
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	1	2	5	0	0	+1	0	23:49	3:52
D. Larkin	C	0	2	2	6	1	1	0	0	23:02	3:56
E. Finnie	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	23:20	2:42
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:49	3:56
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	15:59	1:37
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	15:49	1:35
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	15:27	1:35
C. Mazur	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	13:07	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	8:51	0:00
S. Dries	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:22	0:01
A. Johansson	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	12:16	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	28:28	3:52
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-2	2	19:43	0:02
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	18:42	1:39
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:35	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	13:28	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Tarasov	27	24	3	.889	62:58	OT loss
J. Gibson	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	20:04	2:18
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	15:45	0:49
B. Catton	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:07	2:33
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	17:42	1:21
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	17:38	1:41
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	17:05	2:19
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:01	0:00
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	15:59	2:18
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	13:34	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	2	13:17	1:41
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	12:43	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	12:36	2:27
B. Montour	D	1	0	1	3	1	1	+2	0	30:44	3:18
R. Evans	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	+2	2	22:34	0:17
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	26:37	2:58
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	22:20	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:10	0:00
V. Ottavainen	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	8:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	25	22	3	.880	64:48	Win
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

DET

Line 1A. DeBrincat17:00E. Finnie16:52M. Brandsegg-Nygård14:18

Line 2D. Larkin13:50L. Raymond16:30V. Arvidsson15:15

Line 3A. Copp12:14M. Rasmussen12:45C. Mazur12:36

Line 4K. Kolesar7:50S. Dries6:38

Pair 1B. Chiarot17:32M. Seider18:25

Pair 2J. Faulk15:07A. Sandin-Pellikka13:05

Pair 3A. Johansson11:26A. Englund10:06

SEA

Line 1B. McMann14:29M. Samoskevich14:52C. Stephenson13:39

Line 2F. Gaudreau12:30R. Winterton11:47B. Meyers11:20

Line 3J. Eberle11:31J. McCann11:59M. Beniers11:33

Line 4K. Kakko10:06S. Wright10:44B. Catton10:55

Pair 1R. Evans18:25B. Montour21:17

Pair 2A. Larsson18:32V. Dunn19:06

Pair 3J. Mahura11:10V. Ottavainen8:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 19 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	-105	-114	5	Over
SEA B. McMann	2.5	-104	-120	2	Under
SEA B. Montour	2.5	+115	-150	3	Over
DET D. Larkin	2.5	-120	+115	6	Over
SEA J. McCann	2.5	+140	-180	1	Under
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+110	-130	4	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-125	+102	3	Over
SEA V. Dunn	2.5	+130	-155	1	Under
DET A. Copp	1.5	+105	-125	0	Under
SEA A. Larsson	1.5	+110	-140	1	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-105	-105	1	Under
SEA J. Eberle	1.5	-135	+120	4	Over
SEA K. Kakko	1.5	+120	-165	0	Under
SEA M. Beniers	1.5	+100	-125	2	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	-175	+140	0	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	1.5	-164	+130	2	Over
DET M. Seider	1.5	-150	+130	2	Over
SEA R. Evans	1.5	+140	-190	1	Under
SEA R. Winterton	1.5	+110	-140	0	Under

6 of 32 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+425	-700	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+165	-200	1	Over
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
SEA A. Larsson	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.5	+1300	-5000	0	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+450	-650	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+220	-290	0	Under
SEA B. Meyers	0.5	+800	-2000	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+425	-800	1	Over
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+425	-550	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+195	-240	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
SEA F. Gaudreau	0.5	+575	-1000	0	Under
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+250	-320	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+800	-2800	0	Under
SEA J. Mahura	0.5	+1300	-5000	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	+240	-285	0	Under
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+260	-320	1	Over
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+300	-420	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+390	-475	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+550	-1200	0	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	0.5	+325	-370	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
SEA R. Evans	0.5	+1100	-4000	1	Over
SEA R. Winterton	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+440	-750	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+250	-360	1	Over
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+440	-800	0	Under

6 of 24 overs hit (25%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+125	-160	1	Over
SEA A. Larsson	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+235	-340	1	Over
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+186	-235	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+175	-250	0	Under
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+145	-200	1	Over
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+140	-175	2	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+200	-250	1	Over
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+158	-200	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+190	-255	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	+150	-180	0	Under
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+135	-155	1	Over
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+180	-245	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+230	-290	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+300	-425	0	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	0.5	+270	-370	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	-111	-105	0	Under
SEA R. Evans	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+168	-220	0	Under
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+134	-140	0	Under

10 of 24 overs hit (42%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-190	+160	2	Over
SEA A. Larsson	0.5	+310	-325	0	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+150	-190	1	Over
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+350	-525	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+120	-150	1	Over
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	-105	-120	1	Over
DET D. Larkin	0.5	-150	+130	2	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+125	-132	1	Over
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	-130	+105	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+140	-190	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	-130	+105	0	Under
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-145	+130	2	Over
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+105	-115	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+125	-145	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+165	-230	0	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	0.5	+130	-160	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	-155	+145	0	Under
SEA R. Evans	0.5	+185	-255	1	Over
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+135	-185	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-110	-105	1	Over
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	-113	-105	0	Under

3 of 19 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+380	-900	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+230	-280	2	Over
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+235	-400	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+310	-350	2	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+340	-400	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	+275	-375	0	Under
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+270	-325	2	Over
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+390	-750	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+333	-375	0	Under
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+250	-300	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
SEA P. Grubauer	25.5	-118	-110	22	Under
DET D. Tarasov	24.5	-110	-105	24	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DET M. Seider	2.5	+125	-175	2	Under
SEA A. Larsson	1.5	-185	+130	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	1.5	-115	-125	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.2, SEA 3.0	DET 3, SEA 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	DET 29.4, SEA 26.5	DET 25, SEA 27
Win chance	DET 53%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.6	5	1.07	2	37%	1
DET D. Larkin	3.1	6	0.98	2	36%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	3.0	3	0.88	1	31%	1
SEA B. McMann	2.5	2	0.60	0	27%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.4	4	0.97	2	29%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.3	1	0.75	0	28%	0
DET M. Seider	2.2	2	0.65	0	9%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.1	1	0.60	0	13%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	2.1	0	0.45	0	17%	0
SEA M. Samoskevich	2.0	2	0.46	1	19%	1
SEA J. Eberle	1.8	4	0.63	0	23%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.7	1	0.46	1	20%	0
DET J. Faulk	1.7	0	0.42	0	9%	0
DET A. Copp	1.7	0	0.58	0	19%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.6	2	0.60	0	23%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.6	0	0.35	0	11%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.5	1	0.45	1	17%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	1	0.33	0	8%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.4	0	0.22	0	6%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.4	1	0.38	0	17%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	0	0.45	0	19%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	0	0.57	0	18%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	1	0.41	0	17%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.1	3	0.31	0	13%	0
SEA V. Ottavainen	1.0	4	0.17	0	4%	0
DET C. Mazur	1.0	1	0.21	0	10%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.0	1	0.62	1	19%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.9	1	0.38	1	10%	1
DET A. Johansson	0.9	1	0.13	0	4%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	0	0.20	0	3%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.8	0	0.19	0	4%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.7	1	0.17	1	3%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.6	0	0.18	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.