Game Recap: DET 4, SJS 5 (OT), November 18, 2024

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Game Recap

DET4

Final/OTMon, Nov 18, 2024Every game that night

SJS5

SJS beat DET 5-4 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.51 expected goals to 2.82. SJS outshot DET 34 to 20. W. Eklund led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Celebrini had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. M. Blackwood stopped 17 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DET	2	1	1	0	4
SJS	1	2	1	1	5

1st 7:28DETD. Larkin0.16 xG
1st 10:28SJSW. EklundPP0.28 xG
1st 18:48DETM. KasperPP0.46 xG
2nd 5:59SJSW. Eklund0.01 xG
2nd 8:11DETM. Rasmussen0.08 xG
2nd 19:18SJST. Toffoli0.14 xG
3rd 6:19SJSL. Kunin0.09 xG
3rd 17:54DETA. DeBrincatPP0.08 xG
OT 0:46SJSM. Celebrini0.16 xG

Team Stats

DETSJS

20Shots on goal34

2.82Expected goals3.51

44Shot attempts64

145v5 shots on goal27

2/3Power play1/4

13Hits22

11Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes4

16Giveaways17

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

DET 2.82 xGSJS 3.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

DET20 on goal, 4 scored

SJS33 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	1	1	2	4	0	1	-1	0	19:54	3:15
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	19:09	3:12
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-2	0	15:57	3:15
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:53	0:16
M. Kasper	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	12:29	0:54
M. Rasmussen	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	0	12:22	0:00
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:50	0:16
P. Kane	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	14:47	2:33
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	14:01	0:00
C. Fischer	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	13:00	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	12:53	0:16
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:01	0:00
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	23:14	0:04
E. Gustafsson	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	12:24	0:16
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+1	0	26:55	3:15
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	22:00	0:03
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	19:54	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	34	29	5	.853	60:46	OT loss
A. Lyon	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	18:21	3:39
W. Eklund	LW	2	0	2	3	0	1	0	0	18:11	3:38
M. Granlund	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:31	3:50
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	6	0	0	+1	0	18:30	2:27
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	17:42	3:47
T. Toffoli	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	15:06	2:30
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	13:35	0:18
L. Kunin	C	1	0	1	2	4	0	+1	0	11:56	0:20
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	1	1	4	5	0	+1	0	8:26	0:00
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:42	2:33
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:23	2:23
K. Kostin	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	0	9:29	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	23:49	0:23
M. Ferraro	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+2	0	22:26	0:12
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	2	21:10	3:48
H. Thrun	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	13:14	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+2	0	19:55	2:27
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	20	17	4	.850	60:34	Win
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	DET 3.6, SJS 3.0	DET 4, SJS 5
Total goals	6.6	9
Shots on goal	DET 30.7, SJS 29.5	DET 20, SJS 34
Win chance	DET 58%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS T. Toffoli	3.0	4	0.79	1	33%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.0	6	0.61	1	25%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.9	4	1.00	2	36%	1
DET A. DeBrincat	2.7	3	0.88	1	31%	1
DET P. Kane	2.6	3	0.90	0	27%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.5	1	0.91	1	20%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.5	0	0.62	1	24%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.3	3	0.46	1	16%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.1	1	0.91	1	28%	0
DET M. Seider	2.0	1	0.65	0	9%	0
DET V. Tarasenko	1.9	1	0.64	1	25%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.8	3	0.69	2	20%	2
DET J. Berggren	1.7	0	0.43	0	19%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.6	0	0.30	0	7%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.5	1	0.34	1	15%	1
DET E. Gustafsson	1.4	1	0.43	1	7%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.4	1	0.37	0	17%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.4	4	0.23	1	13%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.4	0	0.28	1	12%	0
DET J. Petry	1.3	0	0.43	0	7%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.3	0	0.24	1	5%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.3	2	0.32	1	6%	0
DET J. Compher	1.3	1	0.53	0	20%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.3	0	0.31	1	10%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	1	0.42	2	15%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.2	1	0.39	0	8%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.2	1	0.32	0	15%	0
DET A. Copp	1.2	2	0.47	0	17%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.2	2	0.29	1	14%	1
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	1	0.38	1	15%	1
DET C. Fischer	1.0	0	0.26	0	10%	0
DET J. Veleno	0.9	1	0.28	0	12%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	1	0.22	0	6%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.9	2	0.28	1	5%	0
SJS K. Kostin	0.7	2	0.27	0	13%	0
DET J. Holl	0.6	0	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.